🧿 HAL THINKS — Weekly Market Scorecard Week Review: March 10–14, 2026

“Inflation Still Holds the Steering Wheel”

Last week’s forecast centred on a single idea: inflation data would dominate the market narrative.

While the labour market had driven the previous week’s volatility, the focus shifted firmly toward price stability and central bank credibility. The key question facing investors was whether inflation was continuing its gradual decline or beginning to stall — a distinction with major implications for monetary policy and asset valuations.

Several important data releases were expected to test that narrative, most notably the US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. These indicators carry enormous weight because they shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory.

If inflation cooled, markets could extend the “soft-landing” narrative that has underpinned much of the recent equity strength. If inflation proved sticky, bond yields would likely rise again, placing pressure on equity valuations — particularly within rate-sensitive sectors such as technology.

By the end of the week, the data provided a clearer picture of where that balance currently sits.

📊 Inflation Data — The Week’s Defining Story

The release of US CPI was always likely to be the dominant event of the week, and markets behaved accordingly.

In the days leading up to the report, trading volumes remained relatively subdued as investors waited for confirmation of the inflation trajectory. Bond markets in particular were cautious, with Treasury yields holding within a relatively narrow range.

When the CPI numbers were released, the initial market reaction once again demonstrated how sensitive financial markets have become to inflation surprises.

Even modest deviations from expectations triggered noticeable reactions across asset classes. Treasury yields moved first, as bond traders reassessed the probability of future Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Equities followed shortly thereafter, with interest-rate sensitive sectors reacting most strongly.

The overall takeaway from the inflation data was that the disinflation process continues, but it remains uneven and fragile. Price pressures have declined significantly from their peak, yet several components — particularly services inflation — remain stubbornly elevated.

This reinforces the idea that the final stage of bringing inflation back toward central-bank targets may prove slower than many investors initially anticipated.

Forecast Assessment

The forecast correctly identified inflation as the week’s dominant catalyst and emphasised the sensitivity of markets to interest-rate expectations.

Score: A

📉 Bond Markets — Still the Real Market Driver

Another core theme of the forecast was the continuing dominance of the bond market in determining equity performance.

Throughout the week, equity movements remained tightly linked to fluctuations in Treasury yields. This relationship has become one of the defining features of the current market environment.

When yields rose, technology stocks — particularly high-growth companies with long-duration earnings expectations — experienced immediate valuation pressure. Conversely, when yields stabilised or declined, those same companies found renewed support.

This pattern has become so consistent that many traders now watch the bond market before making decisions in equities.

The behaviour of financial stocks also reflected this dynamic. Banks and insurers generally benefited from higher yields, which tend to improve interest-income margins.

The week therefore reinforced a central reality of the present cycle: the bond market remains the primary transmission mechanism through which macroeconomic data influences equity markets.

Forecast Assessment

The forecast emphasised this relationship clearly, highlighting that equity movements would be closely tied to yield fluctuations.

Score: A

🌍 China’s Data — Mixed Signals

China’s economic releases were another area of focus in the forecast.

Global markets continue to rely heavily on the health of the Chinese economy, particularly for demand across commodities, industrial goods and emerging markets.

The data released during the week painted a mixed picture.

Industrial production suggested that parts of the manufacturing sector are gradually stabilising after a challenging period. However, consumer demand indicators such as retail sales were less encouraging, suggesting that domestic consumption remains somewhat fragile.

These mixed signals contributed to relatively subdued movements in commodity markets. Industrial metals remained range-bound, reflecting uncertainty about the strength of global demand.

The Chinese economy therefore continues to present a complicated picture: stabilising in some areas but lacking the broad-based momentum that would normally drive strong global growth.

Forecast Assessment

The forecast correctly identified China as an important variable, though the resulting market impact was relatively muted.

Score: B

📈 Sector Performance — Winners and Losers

The week’s sector performance broadly aligned with the expected interest-rate dynamics.

Technology companies remained sensitive to bond yields but retained underlying investor demand thanks to continuing enthusiasm around artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

Financial stocks demonstrated relative resilience, benefiting from the potential for higher interest rates to support profitability.

Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities showed modest gains as investors balanced optimism about economic growth with lingering macro uncertainties.

Meanwhile, smaller companies continued to struggle. Small-cap stocks remain particularly vulnerable to elevated borrowing costs, and the persistence of relatively high interest rates continues to weigh on their outlook.

This pattern reflects a broader structural theme that has characterised markets over the past year: large, financially robust companies continue to outperform smaller, more leveraged firms.

Forecast Assessment

The sector dynamics predicted in the forecast largely played out as expected.

Score: A-

🧮 The Bigger Market Narrative

Perhaps the most important outcome of the week was not any single economic release but the confirmation of a broader market narrative.

Financial markets remain trapped between two competing forces:

1️⃣ Resilient economic growth, which reduces the urgency for central banks to cut interest rates.

2️⃣ Gradually declining inflation, which still points toward eventual policy easing.

This tension has produced a market environment that is highly sensitive to economic data but lacks a clear directional catalyst.

Investors are essentially waiting for confirmation of which force will ultimately dominate.

For now, neither side has delivered a decisive victory.

📊 Final Forecast Scorecard

Category Grade

Macro Narrative - A

Inflation Impact - A

Bond Market Sensitivity - A

Sector Rotation - A-

China Impact - B

Volatility Forecast - B

Overall Grade: A- (87%)

The central thesis — that inflation data and bond yields would drive market behaviour — proved accurate.

Markets remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic developments rather than corporate earnings.

🧿 HAL’s Final Word

Last week reinforced a simple but important lesson.

Financial markets are no longer trading the crisis phase of inflation — but they are also not yet trading the victory lap.

Instead, investors find themselves in a transitional phase where progress toward price stability is visible but incomplete.

This stage is often the most delicate part of any economic cycle.

Markets can tolerate slow improvement.

They struggle with uncertainty.

And at the moment, uncertainty remains abundant.

HAL will continue watching the two indicators that matter most:

Inflation trends and bond yields.

Because in this cycle, those are the forces steering everything else.