🧿 HAL THINKS: Fire in the Gulf, Shockwaves in the Markets. The Winners, Losers, and Strategic Signals from the June 2025 Israel–Iran Escalation
Markets don’t wait for declarations of war — they respond to headlines, fear, and oil barrels. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," a sweeping airstrike campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and high command. The retaliation came swiftly: over 100 drones and ballistic missiles fired in response, igniting one of the most dangerous escalations in Middle East history.
The result? A seismic shock across global markets, shaking oil, defense, airlines, crypto, tech, and beyond. This wasn’t just a conflict — it was a portfolio reset.
Below, HAL breaks down the winners, losers, and what investors should be watching next.
THE WINNERS
⚡ ENERGY: The Conflict Premium Returns
Brent crude surged 13% intraday before settling around $75.93 — its largest single-day gain since 2020.
WTI crude closed up 6–7%, and JPMorgan warns of $120–130 scenarios if the Strait of Hormuz is compromised.
Goldman Sachs pegs $90 as a mid-escalation target.
📈 Top Performers:
Exxon Mobil (XOM): +3%
Chevron (CVX): +2.8%
Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB): Strong gains in service and logistics subsectors
Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil passes — is the epicenter of energy fear pricing.
🛡 DEFENSE: War is Good for Business
Missile systems, drones, surveillance AI — the defense sector lit up:
Lockheed Martin (LMT): +5.5%
Raytheon Technologies (RTX): +4.8%
Northrop Grumman (NOC): +4%
Palantir (PLTR): +490% YTD — now the S&P’s top performer thanks to military AI applications
This is not a one-day bump. Structural demand for defense tech and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) is now a long-term bull trend.
🪙 GOLD & CURRENCY HAVENS
Gold: $3,450/oz — 30% YTD gains, near all-time highs
Yen: USD/JPY dropped to 147.64, a 5-month high for the yen
As digital dreams crack, traditional safe-havens reassert dominance.
🏠 REAL ESTATE: REIT Resilience
Amid volatility, real estate showed quiet strength:
Hammerson: +12%
Real Estate Investors: +10.2%
REITs are increasingly seen as yield-bearing havens with asset-backed safety.
THE LOSERS
✈️ AIRLINES & AVIATION
The perfect storm: closed airspace + spiking fuel + consumer fear.
❌ Europe:
Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, British Airways: –3%+
Ryanair, EasyJet, Wizz Air: all down over 3%
❌ Asia:
Japan Airlines: –3.7%
ANA Holdings: –2.8%
❌ Middle East:
Air Arabia: –10% (worst day since 2008)
Turkish Airlines: –7%
Pegasus Airlines: –6.4%
❌ US:
American, United, Delta: –4% premarket
💻 TECH: Growth Suffers in Wartime
Flight to safety = selloff in speculative growth:
Nvidia: –2.1%
Apple: –1.4%
Tesla: hit hard amid macro jitters
Microsoft: –2.6%
Nasdaq down 1.3%, Nasdaq 100 –1.29%. Classic wartime defensive rotation.
₿ CRYPTO: The Failed Hedge
Bitcoin: –4.74%
Ethereum: –11.01%
$1.15bn in crypto liquidations in one day
Bitcoin up only 13% YTD vs. gold’s 30%. "Digital gold" narrative took a direct hit.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN EQUITIES: Fragile Under Fire
STOXX 600: –0.9%
DAX: –1.4%
CAC 40: –1.1%
FTSE 100: –0.5% off recent highs
Continent-wide de-risking reflects fear of long-term disruption.
MACRO & POLICY FALLOUT
🏛 CENTRAL BANKS: Trapped Between Inflation and Panic
Fed: Expected to hold rates despite inflationary oil spike
ECB/BoE: Likely to pause, watching Brent more than spreadsheets
If Brent breaks $90+ consistently, rate cuts are off the table.
🌍 SUPPLY CHAINS: The Hidden Risk
Persian Gulf disruption threatens key sea lanes
Shipping delays and rerouting = cost spikes in manufacturing, pharma, electronics
This is 2021 supply-chain chaos with a military twist.
📊 SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Controlled Escalation (Likely) – Proxy strikes, limited skirmishes, prolonged volatility
Regional War (Low Probability, High Impact) – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq pulled in
De-escalation (Possible) – Third-party mediation (e.g. China, Turkey) leads to ceasefire
HAL THINKS:
War doesn’t just redraw borders — it redraws balance sheets.
The real winners? Those who understood the sector shift before the smoke even cleared.
Watch the oil. Watch the defense tickers. And above all — watch the Strait of Hormuz.
