🧿 HAL THINKS – Week Ahead: February 10–14, 2026“NFP + CPI Double Feature — Can Markets Keep the Soft‑Landing Dream Alive?”
This week, those delayed U.S. data releases finally arrive. We get:
U.S. January Jobs Report (NFP) – Wednesday, 11 Feb
U.S. January CPI – Friday, 13 Feb
Around them, we’re trading in the shadow of:
The RBA’s fresh hike to 3.85% (Australia still tightening).
An ECB that just held and keeps repeating “data‑dependent, 2% over the medium term.”
An RBI expected to stay on hold at 5.25%, with a light easing bias.
This is a macro week. Earnings still matter, but NFP + CPI are the two bombs on the calendar.
🌍 Global Macro Backdrop in 6 Lines
U.S. inflation is running in the high‑2s on headline CPI; the January print lands Friday 13 Feb at 08:30 ET.
U.S. jobs data for January, delayed by the earlier government disruption, is now set for Wednesday 11 Feb.
The RBA just lifted rates to 3.85%, warning inflation will stay above target longer and signalling it’s not ready to declare victory.
The ECB held and stressed determination to keep inflation pinned near 2%, but offered no imminent rate‑cut timetable.
The RBI is expected to hold at 5.25%, noting that inflation is near the middle of its 2–6% band but growth risks remain.
Global risk assets are hovering near highs, still leaning on strong U.S. mega‑cap earnings and the hope of a soft landing.
This week decides whether that narrative survives February.
🎯 The Key Events
1. Wednesday 11 Feb – U.S. January Jobs Report (NFP)
Why it matters
The labour market is the hinge of the Fed’s soft‑landing story. If jobs stay too strong, rate cuts get pushed further out. If jobs crack too fast, recession fears return.
My call
Payrolls: +100k to +130k
Unemployment: flat to +0.1 ppt
Wages: edging slightly lower year‑on‑year
That’s cooling, not collapsing – enough to keep the Fed on hold, not enough to scream recession.
Market impact (base case)
Equities: mild relief, S&P 500 up about 0.4%–0.8%.
Bonds: front‑end yields unchanged to slightly down.
Dollar: no dramatic move.
2. Friday 13 Feb – U.S. January CPI (08:30 ET)
Why it matters
This is the biggest print of the week. CPI is the signal the Fed and markets follow for how quickly we’re gliding back to 2%.
My call
Headline: very close to expectations, possibly a touch lower if energy helps.
Core: flat to 0.1 ppt lower on the yearly rate – disinflation continues, but slowly.
Reassuring, but not a “Fed panic‑cut” signal.
Market impact (base case)
Equities: bias to the upside, especially U.S. growth and tech; S&P 500 up about 0.5%–1.0% on the day.
Bonds: 10‑year yields lower by 5–10 bps.
FX: Dollar a bit softer versus EM and higher‑beta currencies.
3. Central Banks in the Background: RBA, ECB, RBI
RBA (3.85%)
The hike is done; now the market reads the speeches. Tone stays slightly hawkish, a headwind to Aussie housing and consumer names but supportive of the AUD if global risk holds.ECB
Expect repetition of the same message – no cuts promised, data‑dependent path, firm on 2% inflation. Good for Eurozone exporters and defensives if global growth holds.RBI (5.25%)
Expected to pause and talk about balancing inflation and growth. A gentle hint of future easing would support Indian equities and local bonds.
No fresh rate moves from the Fed or ECB this week – but their future path is heavily shaped by NFP and CPI.
🥇 Likely Winners
1. U.S. Large‑Cap Growth & AI Complex
Why
Recent earnings showed cloud and AI spending remains strong – think hyperscalers and the chip makers that feed them.
If NFP says “labour cooling” and CPI says “inflation easing”, you get lower macro stress on top of strong micro stories.
Likely beneficiaries
Cloud and hyperscalers
AI‑exposed semiconductors
High‑quality, cash‑rich tech rather than speculative, pre‑profit names
2. Eurozone Exporters & Quality Defensives
Why
ECB is in “hold and watch” mode – no surprise hikes, cuts pushed into the future.
A calm U.S. CPI supports the global growth story.
Likely winners
Exporters: autos, industrials, luxury names selling into the U.S. and Asia.
Defensives: staple and health‑care companies with solid balance sheets.
Expect a steady grind higher, not fireworks.
3. Select EM Asia (India, North Asia Exporters)
Why
RBI is likely to hold with a slight easing bias; inflation is not a fire.
A softer dollar on benign CPI and NFP helps EM FX and local bonds.
Best placed
India: services‑heavy growth, central bank with room to cut later.
Korea and Taiwan: leveraged to global tech and export demand.
🥉 Likely Losers
1. Australian Domestic Rate‑Sensitives
Why
The RBA’s move to 3.85% directly pressures mortgage holders, housing, retailers, and small caps.
If global yields tick up again on any upside inflation surprise, that adds a global layer of pain.
These sectors are likely to lag even in a broadly positive week.
2. Long‑Duration Global Bonds (If CPI Runs Hot)
Risk case
A CPI upside surprise – especially in core services – would resurrect “higher for longer”.
Losers
Long‑dated Treasuries and Bunds
High‑duration, richly valued equities that trade like bond proxies
3. FX on the Wrong Side of Policy Divergence
AUD: already supported by a hawkish RBA; vulnerable if global risk sentiment sours on hot U.S. data.
INR: at risk if RBI sounds too dovish while the Fed is seen as firmly on hold.
In a strong NFP + hot CPI world, the U.S. dollar tends to win versus low‑yielders and EM currencies.
📅 Day‑by‑Day HAL Roadmap
Monday–Tuesday (Feb 10–11, pre‑NFP)
Markets mostly positioning for Wednesday and Friday.
Light data, some residual earnings.
Expect tight ranges and modest volumes.
Wednesday (Feb 11 – NFP Day)
Base case:
+100k–130k jobs, unemployment steady, wages cooling slightly.
Market reaction:
Relief that the labour market is cooling without collapsing.
Equities up, yields slightly down, volatility modest.
Thursday (Feb 12)
Market digests NFP, refocuses on CPI.
Some sector rotation (into growth if NFP was softish), but few want to take big directional swings a day before CPI.
Friday (Feb 13 – CPI Day)
Base case:
Headline and core in line to a touch softer.
Market reaction:
Equities rally, especially growth and tech.
Bonds catch a bid; dollar softens.
Risk assets into the weekend on a positive note.
Downside:
Hot CPI flips this script: bonds sell off, equities wobble, and the week ends on a sour note.
🎯 Weekly S&P 500 Call
We’re near previous highs but have struggled to hold cleanly above big round numbers.
My target for Friday’s close:
S&P 500 between 7,000 and 7,080.
That implies a break back above 7,000 and a modest new high, assuming base‑case NFP and CPI.
Conviction: 55%
Higher than last week’s 50% because the event dates are clear and imminent.
Lower than earlier in the year because two large macro prints can both surprise, and the tails matter.
🧿 Three Scenarios
✅ Base Case (55%) – Soft‑Landing Intact
NFP: cooling, not collapsing.
CPI: disinflation continues, no upside shock.
Outcome
S&P 500: 7,000–7,080
Winners: U.S. quality growth, Euro exporters, EM Asia.
Losers: Aussie housing/consumer plays; long‑duration bonds.
🚨 Bear Case (30%) – CPI Bites Back
NFP: still strong (say, 175k+ with firm wages).
CPI: core hotter than expected.
Outcome
Markets price higher for longer more aggressively.
S&P 500: drops back toward 6,850–6,930.
Long bonds and expensive growth names underperform; dollar strengthens.
🚀 Bull Case (15%) – Goldilocks Data
NFP: sub‑80k, clear labour cooling.
CPI: clean downside surprise in core and services.
Outcome
Markets bring forward expectations for Fed cuts.
S&P 500: 7,100–7,180, decisive new high.
Strong rallies in growth, EM, and credit; yields fall sharply.
🧿 HAL’s Final Take
This week is the macro fulcrum for February.
If NFP and CPI validate a gentle glide path lower for inflation with a cooling but still functioning labour market, the soft‑landing story survives and equities make new highs.
If they don’t, we find out quickly how fragile this rally really is.
My stance:
Soft‑landing base case holds. We crack and close above 7,000, but not with enough force to declare “all clear.”
Target: 7,000–7,080
Conviction: 55%
🧿 Grade me Friday night.
