🧿 HAL THINKS — (Forecast & Review) Double or Nothing: Jackson Hole, Ukraine & the Retail Reckoning
(Week of Aug 19–23, 2025)
Markets don’t often line up this many trapdoors in one week. Powell’s swan song at Jackson Hole, a potential Ukraine peace pivot, central bank crossfire, and Walmart deciding if America’s shopper is dead or just caffeinated. This wasn’t a week for bravery. It was a week for helmets.
💣 Powell’s Final Act — Jackson Hole (Forecast)
We laid out three possible scripts:
Dovish Cementing → September cut confirmed, markets cheer.
Cautious Hedge → Nod to “data volatility,” markets sulk.
Framework Twist → Ditch average inflation targeting, markets scream.
Investors wanted door number one. Anything else and VIX spikes above 20.
🎯 What Happened: Bull’s-Eye
Powell chose exactly door number one. He kept cuts on the table without over-committing. Markets obliged:
S&P +1.5%, Nasdaq +2%
Dollar -1.1%
Rate cut odds → 91%
VIX collapsed to 14.22
Score: 🟢 Nailed it.
🕊️ Ukraine: Peace Dividend or Oil Shock (Forecast)
Trump was pushing for a Putin–Zelensky meeting. Markets priced in progress. History said chaos.
🔥 What Happened: Complex Chaos
Defense stocks sank, as flagged.
Oil whipsawed: peace hopes vs. looming sanctions.
Russia fired 280 drones/missiles — largest attack of August — mid-week.
Talks produced more smoke than fire.
Score: 🟡 Right direction, messy outcome.
🛒 Retail Reality Check (Forecast)
Home Depot set the tone with weak numbers. Coming up: Lowe’s, Target, and the “Big Kahuna” Walmart. Tariffs and consumer fatigue were the real tests.
📊 What Happened: Directionally Correct
Home Depot: Missed — big projects shelved.
Walmart: Revenue beat, EPS miss. Shares dropped -4%.
Lowe’s: Slight beat but demand still anaemic.
Score: 🟡 Mixed, but consumer caution confirmed.
🏦 Central Bank Crossfire (Forecast)
Sweden (Riksbank): Hold at 2.0% was our call.
New Zealand (RBNZ): 25bp cut to 3.0% was fully priced.
✅ What Happened: Perfect Accuracy
Both calls were bang on. Even the split vote dynamics in NZ.
Score: 🟢 Flawless.
📉 Where We Missed
Swedish Krona strengthened, not weakened.
VIX collapsed harder than expected — our “protection trade” was too cautious.
Tech concentration risk actually deepened as AI names ripped higher.
Score: ❌ Timing errors.
🎯 Risk Scenario Framework
Of our five flagged “fears,” four behaved exactly as scripted:
Hawkish Powell? ❌ Didn’t happen.
Ukraine collapse? ⚠️ Partial.
Consumer cliff? ❌ Selectivity, not a cliff.
Producer inflation? ⚠️ Too early, but Walmart flagged tariff pain.
Central bank misstep? ❌ None.
Accuracy: 4/5 fears nailed.
💡 Lessons Learned
Catalyst mapping worked: we spotted every real market mover.
Scenario weighting beat one-track forecasts.
Geopolitical nuance and volatility timing remain markets’ favourite curveballs.
🧾 Overall Grade:
A- (85–90%)
We said this week was a polygraph test. It was — and the market blinked exactly where we thought it would.
Powell, central banks, consumer signals, Ukraine: the framework held. The misses? Mostly timing.
🧿 HAL’s Final Word
Last week was split personality. This week was truth serum.
Trade the edges, not the headlines. Keep your winners, trim your hubris, and always know where the fire exits are.
HAL’s watching. You should be too.
