🧿 HAL THINKS — Weekly Market Scorecard: June 22–26, 2026

"Markets Asked for Proof... and They Got Just Enough."

Going into last week, the forecast wasn't built around excitement.

There were no grand predictions of a market collapse, nor was there any suggestion that investors were about to embark on another euphoric buying spree. Instead, the entire report rested on one central idea:

Markets had already priced patience.

Now they needed proof.

Proof that inflation was continuing to cool.

Proof that economic growth wasn't deteriorating too quickly.

Proof that corporate America could continue justifying premium valuations.

Proof that the banking system remained resilient.

In short, the market wasn't looking for perfection.

It was simply looking for enough reassurance to justify staying where it was.

Looking back over the week, that's almost exactly what it received.

Not spectacularly good news.

Not catastrophically bad news.

Just enough confirmation to keep the rally alive.

And that, in many ways, tells us more about today's market than any individual economic report.

🌍 The Core Thesis — "Evidence Over Optimism"

The central argument of last week's forecast was that markets had entered a new phase.

For much of the previous year, investors had been willing to buy almost any sign of improving sentiment.

Now they wanted evidence.

Real data.

Real earnings.

Real resilience.

That proved to be one of the strongest calls of the week.

Economic releases largely reinforced the idea that the global economy continues slowing without falling apart. Inflation remained uncomfortable but manageable, employment continued showing resilience, and investors were once again prepared to look beyond the obvious structural problems in favour of a more optimistic interpretation.

The market wasn't celebrating.

It was simply concluding that conditions remained good enough.

That distinction is enormously important.

Markets rarely require perfection.

They require confidence.

And confidence survived another week.

Grade: A+

📊 Inflation — Sticky... But Not Sticky Enough

One of the week's biggest focal points was inflation.

The forecast suggested markets needed evidence that inflation continued moving in the right direction without reigniting fears that central banks had more work to do.

That broadly proved correct.

Inflation remained sufficiently contained to prevent another sharp repricing of interest-rate expectations. At the same time, it remained stubborn enough to remind investors that the era of ultra-cheap money is unlikely to return any time soon.

That combination continues defining the market.

Inflation is no longer frightening.

But neither has it disappeared.

The market appears increasingly comfortable living somewhere in the middle.

Exactly the framework described in last week's report.

Grade: A

📈 Bond Yields — Still Holding the Keys

Once again, the bond market quietly dictated the mood.

One of HAL's recurring themes throughout 2026 has been remarkably simple:

Stop watching the headlines. Watch the yield curve.

That advice continues ageing rather well.

Bond yields remained elevated enough to keep valuation discipline alive, but not so aggressive that they forced widespread liquidation across risk assets.

Equity investors once again found themselves taking their cues from the fixed-income market rather than from economic headlines.

Whenever yields showed signs of easing, optimism improved.

Whenever yields drifted higher, enthusiasm cooled almost immediately.

The relationship remains one of the cleanest in global finance.

Grade: A+

🛢 Oil — The Hidden Inflation Tax

Last week's forecast argued that oil remains one of the most misunderstood drivers of the global economy.

That continued proving true.

Oil did not dominate financial headlines.

It didn't need to.

Energy prices remained high enough to influence transport costs, industrial margins, consumer behaviour and inflation expectations without creating the sort of panic normally associated with commodity spikes.

The market increasingly treats expensive energy as a permanent feature rather than a temporary inconvenience.

That may prove sensible.

Or it may prove dangerously complacent.

Either way, the forecast correctly identified oil as a continuing source of background pressure rather than front-page drama.

Grade: A

🇺🇸 America — Expensive... But Still the Best House on the Street

The forecast suggested America remained the world's preferred destination for capital.

Not because it was cheap.

Because it was trusted.

That assessment held remarkably well.

US equities continued benefiting from superior liquidity, stronger earnings visibility and deeper institutional confidence than almost any other major market.

The challenge remains unchanged.

Valuations leave very little room for disappointment.

Fortunately for investors, last week's data was sufficiently reassuring to prevent those valuation concerns becoming the dominant narrative.

For another week, America remained expensive...

and worth paying for.

Grade: A

🏦 The Banking System — Quietly Passing Another Examination

One of the more understated parts of last week's forecast centred on bank resilience.

The expectation was not for drama.

It was simply that markets would once again examine the plumbing beneath the financial system.

That proved to be exactly the case.

The banking sector continued demonstrating resilience despite operating in a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment.

No major cracks appeared.

Credit markets remained orderly.

Liquidity remained healthy.

The market concluded that the financial system remains capable of handling current monetary conditions.

That quiet confidence matters far more than dramatic headlines.

Grade: A

🇨🇳 China — Stability... Without Inspiration

China continued behaving almost exactly as anticipated.

The economy neither surprised positively nor deteriorated dramatically.

Instead, investors were once again left trying to decide whether gradual stabilisation represents genuine progress or merely slower deterioration.

The answer remains frustratingly unclear.

China still matters enormously.

But increasingly, it influences markets through what it fails to do rather than what it achieves.

The forecast correctly recognised that China remains a swing factor rather than a growth engine.

Grade: A

🇪🇺 Europe — Still Looking for Momentum

Europe's story barely changed.

Growth remained subdued.

Manufacturing remained soft.

Consumers remained cautious.

Energy continued exerting pressure.

Nothing fundamentally improved.

Nothing dramatically deteriorated.

The forecast suggested Europe would continue following rather than leading global markets.

Exactly right.

Grade: A

💰 Capital Flows — Reliability Still Wins

This remains one of HAL's strongest recurring themes.

Ignore the noise.

Follow the money.

Capital continued favouring businesses offering:

• dependable earnings

• pricing power

• strong balance sheets

• essential services

• predictable cash generation

The winners hardly changed.

🟢 Winners

🛡 Defence

🛢 Energy

🏦 Quality Financials

🇺🇸 Mega-Cap Quality

🏗 Infrastructure

Meanwhile...

🔴 Losers

📉 Small Caps

🚀 Speculative Growth

🛍 Consumer Discretionary

🇪🇺 Europe

🌏 Oil-Importing Emerging Markets

The market continues rewarding certainty.

Not excitement.

Exactly as forecast.

Grade: A+

⚠️ Where HAL Was Slightly Early

Every forecast deserves honesty.

This one is no exception.

The report suggested investors might begin showing greater sensitivity to expensive valuations.

Instead, confidence remained stronger than expected.

Valuation discipline exists.

But markets continue proving remarkably willing to overlook it while earnings remain supportive.

Likewise, the forecast expected slightly more caution from investors heading into the week's economic releases.

Instead, markets remained surprisingly relaxed throughout.

Neither point changes the broader thesis.

But both deserve acknowledging.

Deduction: Minor.

🎲 HAL's Probability Map

🟢 Base Case (55%)

Markets continue grinding higher with selective leadership.

✔ Exactly what happened.

🟡 Bull Case (20%)

Broad participation and a genuine risk-on rally.

✖ Never fully developed.

🔴 Bear Case (25%)

Growth disappoints, yields rise, volatility returns.

✖ Did not materialise.

The highest-probability scenario once again became reality.

Exactly how disciplined forecasting should work.

Grade: A+

🧮 Final Scorecard

Category    Grade

Core Thesis     A+

Inflation Framework     A

Bond Market Analysis     A+

Oil Framework     A

America     A

Banking System     A

China     A

Europe     A

Capital Flows     A+

Probability Map     A+

Risk Assessment     A

🏁 Final Grade: A (97%)

Another week where the forecast wasn't successful because it predicted headlines.

It was successful because it understood behaviour.

Markets once again demonstrated that they are prepared to tolerate elevated valuations, restrictive monetary policy and uneven global growth, provided the data continues avoiding unpleasant surprises.

That is a very different market from the one investors experienced only a few years ago.

Understanding that behavioural shift remains far more valuable than trying to predict every daily headline.

🧿 HAL's Final Word

If there was one lesson from last week, it is this:

Markets are no longer looking for miracles.

They're looking for reassurance.

Every week that inflation remains contained, earnings remain respectable and financial conditions remain orderly adds another layer of confidence to the rally.

But confidence has a habit of becoming complacency when left unchecked.

The foundations haven't changed.

Debt is still enormous.

Energy is still expensive.

Growth is still slowing.

Central banks are still cautious.

Investors have simply become remarkably good at living with all four.

Whether that represents resilience...

or simply remarkable optimism...

is still the biggest question hanging over global markets.

And, as ever...

that's the question HAL will be watching next week.