🧿 HAL THINKS: Week Ahead: January 6-10, 2026"Venezuela Shock, Tech Surge, Jobs Week — Can This Rally Hold?"
📊 WHAT'S ALREADY HAPPENED (Monday-Tuesday, Jan 5-6)
Monday, January 5: The Venezuela Shock Rally
The "Upset":
The U.S. military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. Trump immediately announced U.S. oil companies would go in to "repair" Venezuela's oil infrastructure.wsj+3
Market Reaction:
Dow: +594 points (+1.2%) to 49,209.95—ALL-TIME RECORD CLOSEbarrons+2
S&P 500: +0.64% to 6,902.05cnbc+2
Nasdaq: +0.69% to 23,395.82cnbc
What Exploded:
Energy stocks: Chevron +5%, Exxon +4%, Halliburton +11%investopedia+2
Financials: At least 12 major banks hit 52-week highscnbc
Gold: +$19 to $4,459247wallst+2
Silver: +$1.50 to $78.25wsj+1
Tuesday, January 6: The Follow-Through
Market Performance:
Dow: Broke 49,000post-gazette+1
S&P 500: +0.4%, heading for new all-time highbloomberg+1
Nasdaq: +0.7%bloomberg
S&P 500 now at 6,946—less than 1% from 7,000247wallst
Energy still surging. Tech still running. ISM Services came in weaker (bullish for Fed cuts).cmcmarkets+1
🎯 MY WEEKLY CALL
Starting Point (Monday close): 6,902cnbc
Current (Tuesday): ~6,946247wallst
My Target by Friday Close: 6,950 to 7,020
Translation: +0.7% to +1.7% from Monday's close
Conviction: 70%
🗓️ REST OF THE WEEK
Wednesday (Jan 7):
8:15 AM: ADP Employment (Expected: +45K to +50K)ebc+1
10:00 AM: ISM Services PMI (Expected: 52.2)morningstar+1
My call: ADP +40K to +55K (in-line). Market: Flat to +0.3%ebc+1
Thursday (Jan 8):
8:30 AM: Jobless Claims (Expected: 210K)scotiabank+1
My call: Consolidation ahead of NFP. Market: Flat to +0.2%morningstar
Friday (Jan 9) - THE BIG ONE:
8:30 AM: Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: +55K to +57K)features.financialjuice+2
My call: NFP +50K to +65K. Market: +0.5% to +0.8% relief rallymarketpulse+2
Week Target: S&P 500 at 7,000 (+/-20 points) by Friday close
Why I Think We Go Up:
Venezuela rally has legs (energy sector surging)cnbc+1
Tech never stopped (AI chips at CES, Nvidia/Micron ripping)businessinsider+1
Positioning reset (4-day losing streak flushed weak hands)finance.yahoo+1
Jobs data won't shock (low expectations at +57K)features.financialjuice+1
7,000 psychological level triggers FOMObusinessinsider+1
What Could Make Me Wrong:
NFP disaster (<+30K): -2% selloff. Probability: 15%marketpulse+1
ADP shock tomorrow (<+20K): Panic ahead of Friday. Probability: 10%ebc+1
Profit-taking after Venezuela pop: Geopolitical rallies often reverse. Probability: 20%wsj+1
Total chance I'm wrong: 35%
🧿 THE BOTTOM LINE
My call: S&P 500 closes Friday between 6,950-7,020. Conviction: 70%.
If I'm right: You start trusting my calls again.
If I'm wrong: I'm 0-for-4 in December/January and we recalibrate everything.
No excuses this time. Grade me Friday night.
