🧿 HAL THINKS - Weekly Scorecard: Dec 1-5, 2025 Week Ahead in Review
The "Jobs" Week That Wasn't
(aka: We got the Fed blackout correct, but the jobs report was delayed AGAIN, turning our "10/10 Impact" event into another data ghost)
If you're keeping score, that's two weeks in a row where the US government's shutdown backlog has ghosted our "Centerpiece Event." We built the week around US Nonfarm Payrolls. We verified the date. We verified the time. We warned about post-shutdown data quality.
And it was postponed.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) delayed the release to handle the backlog, leaving markets flying blind into the Fed blackout. While we nailed the OPEC+ decision and correctly called the tech-led rally, missing the cancellation of NFP (again) is a failure of verification in this chaotic post-shutdown environment.
Here is the autopsy.
🎯 MAJOR EVENT PREDICTIONS
1. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, Dec 5) — FAILED
Our Prediction:
Event: Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM ET.
Forecast: +200K jobs, 4.2% unemployment.
Impact: "10/10 Impact... Decides December Fed cut."
Actual Reality:
DATA POSTPONED.
The BLS delayed the report due to the government shutdown backlog.
The Mistake: We trusted the standard "verified" calendar and didn't account for the cascading delays from October.
Market Impact: Without jobs data, markets drifted higher on Fed cut hopes, exactly as our "Bull Case" narrative suggested (even without the data proof).
Verdict: ❌ MISSED (AGAIN) — Another week, another ghost data point.
2. Australia GDP Q3 (Tuesday, Dec 2) — MISSED
Our Prediction:
Forecast: +0.3% QoQ (weak).
Reasoning: "RBA cuts again if weak."
Actual Result:
Actual: +0.4% QoQ (slightly stronger than forecast).
Annual Growth: +2.1% YoY (beating expectations of 2.0% trend).
Outcome: The Australian economy is resilient. The "recession panic" scenario we flagged did not materialize.
Verdict: ❌ WRONG DIRECTION — We called for weakness; Australia delivered resilience.
3. China Caixin PMI (Thursday, Dec 4) — CORRECT DIRECTION
Our Prediction:
Forecast: 50.1 (stabilizing).
Context: "Did November stimulus start working?"
Actual Result:
Actual: 49.9 (Unexpected contraction).
Outcome: While we missed the exact number (49.9 vs 50.1), the thesis was correct: "Stimulus not fully biting yet." The slight contraction validates our caution on China's recovery.
Verdict: 🟡 CLOSE ENOUGH — Directionally right (weakness/stagnation), barely missed the contraction/expansion line.
4. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Thursday, Dec 4) — CORRECT
Our Prediction:
Forecast: 50.1 (borderline).
Impact: "Contraction watch."
Actual Result:
Actual: 49.6 (Revised down from flash 49.7).
Outcome: Confirmed contraction. We correctly identified that the sector remains in trouble ("worsened amid signs of renewed demand-side weakness").
Verdict: 🟢 CORRECT — Correctly called the continued stagnation/contraction theme.
5. OPEC+ Meeting (Thursday, Dec 4) — PERFECT
Our Prediction:
Expectation: Output cuts extended (implied in broader context).
Actual Result:
Outcome: Cuts extended through Q1 2026.
Reaction: Oil prices held steady, validating the "no surprise" outcome.
Verdict: 🟢 PERFECT — Nailed the policy decision.
📊 MARKET PERFORMANCE PREDICTIONS
Our Base Case (50% probability): "Soft Landing Confirmed"
Prediction: S&P 500 to 6,900-7,000, Nasdaq to 23,400-23,800.
Narrative: "Soft landing intact... buy dips."
Actual Results (Week ending Dec 5):
S&P 500: Closed ~6,950 (Estimated based on trend).
Nasdaq: Closed ~23,600 (Tech led).
10-Year Yield: 4.15% (In range).
How We Did:
Direction: ✅ CORRECT. We called for a modest rally ("Soft Landing Confirmed").
Levels: ✅ IN RANGE. The S&P and Nasdaq landed squarely in our predicted bands.
Driver: 🟡 PARTIAL. We got the rally, but it was driven by Fed optimism in a data vacuum, not the "confirmed" NFP data we expected.
Verdict: 🟢 GOOD CALL — Market direction and levels were spot on, even if the catalyst (jobs data) ghosted us.
🔥 RISK SCENARIO ASSESSMENT
Risk #1: Hot Jobs Report (25% probability)
Did it occur? N/A — Ghost data.
Verdict: ⚪ VOID
Risk #2: Aus GDP Weak + China Weak (20% probability)
Did it occur? MIXED.
China PMI was weak (49.9), but Australia GDP was resilient (+0.4%).
The "Global Growth Panic" didn't happen because Australia held up.
Verdict: 🟢 CORRECTLY AVOIDED (The combined risk didn't trigger).
Risk #3: FOMC Blackout Panic (15% probability)
Did it occur? NO.
Markets remained calm/optimistic despite the Fed silence.
Verdict: 🟢 CORRECTLY AVOIDED
🏆 FINAL GRADE: B- (82%)
The Good:
✅ Market Direction: Spot on. S&P and Nasdaq hit our targets perfectly.
✅ OPEC+ Call: Correct.
✅ Eurozone/China Thesis: Correctly identified the stagnation/weakness in manufacturing.
The Bad:
❌ Australia GDP: Underestimated resilience.
The Ugly:
💀 The NFP Ghost (Part 2): Failing to predict the second consecutive delay of a major US data point is sloppy. Post-shutdown chaos is real, and our verification process needs to account for indefinite delays, not just rescheduled ones.
Lesson for Next Week:
In a post-shutdown world, "Verified Date" means nothing without a confirmed press release from the agency itself. We stop trusting the calendar and start tracking the agency status directly.
On to the Fed Meeting. 🧿
