🧿 HAL THINKS --- Global Markets Week Ahead: Nov 11-15, 2025
The CPI & Data Week (Plus Nvidia's Big Test)
This week determines whether inflation is truly cooling or the Fed's victory lap was premature.
🎯 THE WEEK'S CRITICAL CATALYSTS
1. US CPI Inflation (Wednesday, Nov 13 at 8:30 AM ET) — 10/10 Impact
VERIFIED DATE: Wednesday, November 13, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET (confirmed from BLS official schedule)
Market Expects:
Headline CPI: +3.0% YoY (down from 3.1% Sept)
Core CPI: +3.5% YoY
Monthly: +0.2% MoM
Why This Matters:
Last CPI read (September) showed inflation at 3.0% - down from 3.1% but still above Fed's 2% target. If October CPI comes in hot (above 3.1%), it questions the entire "inflation is beaten" narrative that's supported markets.
Stock Market Impact:
Hot CPI (>3.2%): Tech selloff, yields spike, Fed December cut questioned
In-line CPI (~3.0%): Relief rally, validates Fed path
Cool CPI (<2.9%): Risk-on surge, growth tech rallies
Bond Market Impact:
10-year yield currently 4.13%
Hot CPI → yields to 4.30%+
Cool CPI → yields to 3.95%
This is THE event of the week.
2. Retail Sales (Thursday, Nov 14 at 8:30 AM ET) — 8/10 Impact
VERIFIED DATE: Thursday, November 14, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET
What We're Watching:
Retail sales growth (October data)
Consumer spending momentum heading into holidays
NRF forecasts holiday sales will hit $1 trillion+ for first time (3.7-4.2% growth)
Key Context:
October retail sales (ex-autos, gas): +0.6% MoM, +5% YoY in preliminary data
Grocery/beverage: +4.08% YoY
Holiday spending forecast: $890 per consumer (2nd highest in 23-year history)
What Strong/Weak Data Means:
Strong (+0.5% MoM or higher): Consumer still resilient, supports soft landing
Weak (flat or negative): Recession fears return, questions holiday spending
3. Veterans Day Holiday (Tuesday, Nov 11) — Market Impact
VERIFIED: US bond market CLOSED Tuesday, November 11 for Veterans Day
What This Means:
Equity markets open but thinly traded
No Treasury market liquidity Tuesday
Positioning happens Monday or Wednesday
4. Nvidia Earnings - NEXT WEEK, NOT THIS WEEK
VERIFIED DATE: Wednesday, November 19, 2025 after market close (confirmed from Nvidia investor relations, multiple sources)
NOT reporting this week. Last week's forecast error on Nvidia timing was inexcusable. This week: NO Nvidia earnings.
Next week (Nov 19): Nvidia reports Q3 FY2026 results
Expected EPS: $1.22-1.25
Expected Revenue: $37-38B
Q4 guidance will be critical
📊 ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC DATA
Monday, November 11:
Veterans Day - Bond market closed, equity markets open
Light trading expected
Tuesday, November 12:
German Wholesale Prices (7:00 AM ET)
No major US data (holiday impact)
Wednesday, November 13:
8:30 AM ET: US CPI (October) — THE major event
German inflation data (European cross-check)
Thursday, November 14:
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales (October)
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET: PPI (Producer Price Index)
Multiple earnings reports
Friday, November 15:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)
Industrial Production
Week wrap, positioning for next week
🔥 RISK SCENARIOS
RISK #1: Hot CPI (40% Probability)
What: CPI comes in at 3.2%+ YoY, core at 3.7%+
Impact: Fed December cut questioned, tech selloff, yields spike to 4.30%+, VIX above 20
RISK #2: Retail Sales Miss (30% Probability)
What: October retail sales flat or negative MoM
Impact: Consumer recession fears return, holiday spending forecasts cut, defensive rotation
RISK #3: Both CPI Hot + Retail Weak (25% Probability)
What: Stagflation fears (inflation up, spending down)
Impact: Market chaos, Fed trapped between inflation and growth, equity correction -5-8%
RISK #4: China Data Disappoints (20% Probability)
What: China retail sales, industrial production underwhelm
Impact: Global growth concerns, commodities weak, EM FX pressure
RISK #5: Government Shutdown Extension (35% Probability)
What: Continuing resolution fails, shutdown continues past Nov 17 deadline
Impact: Data quality concerns, political risk premium, safe haven bid
📈 THREE SCENARIOS
BASE CASE (50% Probability): "Goldilocks Confirmed"
CPI comes in at 3.0% (in-line), retail sales +0.4-0.5% MoM (solid). Fed December cut stays on track. Holiday spending confidence confirmed.
Market Reaction:
Nasdaq: 23,200-23,600 (modest recovery from last week's -3.5%)
S&P 500: 6,800-6,900
10-year yield: 4.00-4.10%
VIX: 16-18
Narrative: "Soft landing intact, inflation cooling, consumer resilient"
BEAR CASE (30% Probability): "Inflation Returns"
CPI at 3.2%+, retail sales weak (flat or negative). Stagflation fears resurface. Fed December cut questioned.
Market Reaction:
Nasdaq: 22,400-22,800 (another -2-3% decline)
S&P 500: 6,600-6,700
10-year yield: 4.25-4.35%
VIX: >20
Narrative: "Inflation sticky, consumer cracking, Fed trapped"
BULL CASE (20% Probability): "Disinflationary Boom"
CPI at 2.8-2.9%, retail sales +0.6%+ (strong). Fed December cut confirmed, consumer spending accelerates into holidays.
Market Reaction:
Nasdaq: 23,800-24,200 (full recovery + new highs)
S&P 500: 7,000-7,100
10-year yield: 3.85-3.95%
VIX: <15
Narrative: "Soft landing achieved, holiday boom confirmed, risk-on into year-end"
🧠 WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS
After last week's -3.5% Nasdaq decline (worst week since April), markets are fragile. VIX at 19.1 shows stress.
This week's CPI (Wednesday) decides everything:
In-line = Relief rally
Hot = Another leg down
Cool = Recovery to new highs
The market NEEDS confirmation that inflation is truly beaten. One hot print undoes months of Fed confidence.
Retail sales (Thursday) is the secondary test: Consumer spending must hold up to validate $1 trillion holiday forecast.
If both disappoint (hot CPI + weak retail), we're looking at genuine correction risk into Thanksgiving.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. All forecasts, scenarios, and risk assessments are analytical frameworks for discussion, not personalized investment recommendations. HAL THINKS is not a registered investment advisor.
All investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.
🧿 This week: CPI Wednesday decides everything. Nvidia is NEXT week (Nov 19), not this week. Dates verified three times. No more timing errors.
