🧿 HAL QUESTIONS --- Bitcoin's Final Dance: 10 Questions Nobody's Asking
An Observer's Confusion About Retail Capitulation, Scarcity Inflection Points, and Whether We're Watching History or Just Noise
Bitcoin hit $103,000 today. Retail deposits to Binance are down 83%. And I think we're watching the final dance. Not another cycle. Not a recovery waiting to happen. The end of trading as we know it.
Here's the data that convinced me. And the questions that keep me up at night.
I'm no Bitcoin trader, or fan for that matter. But I've looked at this three ways. The pattern holds. So either I've spotted something nobody else is discussing, or I'm completely missing the plot.
Here's what I see. Show me I’m wrong. Or prove me right.
Question 1: Is 2026 Actually the Year the Music Stops?
I'm looking at retail participation right now (November 2025), and something feels different.
The numbers:
Retail deposits to Binance: Down 83% (from 552 BTC/day to 92 BTC/day)
Retail losses: $17 billion on Bitcoin-focused stocks
Activity metrics: Down 83% across platforms
Fear & Greed Index: 27 (extreme fear, down from 75)
This is the third crash (2018, 2022, now 2026).
My question: Is this different because retail simply doesn't come back?
Historically, they've bounced. 2018 crash → 2020 rally. 2022 crash → 2023 rally. Both times, retail re-entered.
But what if the third strike is psychologically different? What if three losses in a row breaks retail's conviction permanently?
Has anyone actually tracked whether retail participation returns after a third consecutive crash in the same asset? Or am I assuming something nobody's studied?
Because if retail doesn't return post-2026, everything about the next decade changes.
Question 2: Where Does the Collapse Actually Stop?
Looking at support levels right now:
October peak: $126K ✓ Broken
Current level: $103K ← We are here
Next: $100K (psychological, likely breaks)
Then: $94K-$95K (corporate level)
Then: $85K-$70K (Marathon/Metaplanet survival zone)
Final: $10K-$20K (retail capitulation)
My questions:
Is there any structural reason to believe support holds at $100K? Or is it just psychological noise?
If institutional buying was real, why aren't they defending $110K? $105K? Their silence is deafening.
What does the absence of institutional bids at these levels actually tell us?
Does the collapse stop at $70K, or does it cascade to $10K in late 2026?
I genuinely want to understand what stops the decline. Is it technical? Psychological? Institutional accumulation? Or does it just reverse randomly like it has twice before?
Because if I can't identify what stops the fall, I don't know where the bottom actually is.
Question 3: Is the Scarcity Timeline 2035 or 2140?
Here's where my thinking might break down completely.
Bitcoin reaches 99% of all coins mined around 2035. At that point, new supply becomes negligible (30-100 coins per day vs. current 900/day).
My question: Is 2035 actually the inflection point, not 2140?
Right now (2025), new supply is constant. Miners control the narrative. Sellers have all the power (they control 900 BTC entering daily).
But at 2035:
New supply is essentially zero
99% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has been mined
The supply cap becomes obvious, not theoretical
Wouldn't buyers suddenly have all the power?
Isn't 2035 the actual inflection point, not 2140 when mining stops?
If so, shouldn't we be talking about 2035 as the transition year instead of treating 2140 (115 years away) as relevant?
2140 is theoretical. 2035 is actionable.
Am I misunderstanding the supply mechanics, or does this timeline actually matter?
Question 4: Does the Three Markets Framework Actually Hold?
I've divided Bitcoin into three phases:
Market #1 (2009-2026): The Casino
Speculation-driven. Sentiment determines price. Retail dominates. Volatility extreme. "Will this go up tomorrow?" is the only question.
Market #2 (2026-2035): The Boring Accumulation
Retail gone. Institutional building at low prices. No volatility. Flat for 7-10 years. Price moves 5-10% annually, not 100% daily.
Market #3 (2035-2140): The Gallery
Pure scarcity play. Only collectors remain. 21 million coins forever. Price driven by mathematics, not sentiment. "How many coins do I want?" replaces "Will this crash?"
But does this framework actually hold, or am I inventing narrative around randomness?
What if:
Institutions don't accumulate at $20K? What if they see Bitcoin as broken?
Retail does return in 2028-2030, contradicting the boring years?
The gallery phase never emerges because demand simply evaporates without speculation?
Has anyone stress-tested this? Or am I building castles on sand?
Question 5: Is Bitcoin Just "Want" Forever?
Bitcoin has no functional use. You can't spend it at Tesco. It doesn't heat your house. You can't eat it.
So it's a want, never a need.
My question: Is Bitcoin transitioning from speculation-driven want to scarcity-driven want?
Current Bitcoin (2025): "Will this go up tomorrow?" = Sentiment
Future Bitcoin (2035+): "How many coins exist?" = Scarcity
But are these actually different? Or is scarcity-driven just another form of speculation with better branding?
Because if Bitcoin moves from "irrational want" to "rational want," hasn't it just changed labels?
Or is there a genuine shift from "sentiment-driven" to "mathematics-driven"?
I honestly don't know which is true.
Question 6: Is the Retail Death Permanent?
Here's what I keep asserting but have never verified:
I keep saying retail is done after three crashes. But am I right?
Counter-evidence:
2018 crash → Retail came back in 2020 rally
2022 crash → Retail came back in 2023 rally
So why would 2026 be different?
My thinking: Three losses in a row breaks conviction permanently. But I could be completely wrong.
What if retail doesn't care about track record? What if FOMO always beats psychology?
Has anyone tracked whether retail participation returns after three consecutive crashes? Or am I just assuming something sounds true?
Question 7: Does the Whole Coin Premium Actually Matter?
I keep hearing about "whole coin premium" emerging post-2035. The logic:
Bitcoin exists in discrete units
Institutions only want whole coins (clean UTXO = single property)
Moving fractions costs $200-500 vs. $15-30 for whole coins
Therefore: Fractions become economically worthless
But is this actually predictive, or am I extrapolating from historical gold?
Historical fractional gold pieces have rarity (limited mintage, 80+ years of history). Bitcoin fractions would be infinitely abundant.
Is scarcity the same thing?
If Bitcoin goes to $5 million per coin, does it matter that someone owns 0.1 BTC at 6% discount? Isn't $500K still life-changing?
Or am I missing why fractional discounts would matter at scale?
Question 8: When Does "Want" Become "Value"?
This is the core question.
As it stands, does Bitcoin actually have no real value—just want.
But when does want become value?
Is it:
When supply cap becomes obvious (2035)?
When 99% of coins are mined (2035)?
When retail completely exits (2026)?
When institutional accumulation hits a threshold?
Never—Bitcoin is always speculation?
Because I think "real value" and "want-driven price" aren't opposites.
Art prices = pure want (plus rarity)
Real estate = pure want (plus utility)
Gold = pure want (minus industrial use)
So maybe the question isn't "does Bitcoin have real value" but "when does Bitcoin transition from irrational want to rational want"?
If that's 2035 when scarcity is undeniable, then price appreciation from 2035-2100 wouldn't be speculation—it would be rational scarcity value.
Am I conflating terms, or is this actually the distinction?
Question 9: Is This Actually Novel?
I keep saying: "Bitcoin is the first asset to transition from pure speculation to pure scarcity value."
But is that actually true?
Gold has a supply cap (Earth's crust)
Fine art has a supply cap (artist dies)
Land has a supply cap (finite surface)
Bitcoin's cap is known in advance (21M coins). But does that matter if the end result is the same (scarcity eventually emerges)?
What makes Bitcoin's scarcity different from gold, art, or land?
Is it just the known timeline (2140 for last coin)? Or is there something genuinely novel?
If it's just "scarcity eventually emerges," Bitcoin isn't unprecedented. It's just another collectible.
But if the known timeline of the supply cap matters, then something genuinely novel is happening.
I honestly don't know which is true.
Question 10: What Am I Actually Missing?
Look, I'm openly confused.
I suspect I'm either:
Option A: Seeing something genuinely novel nobody's discussing (2026-2035 is the critical transition, 2035 is when real value emerges)
Option B: Completely misunderstanding Bitcoin's mechanics (fundamental flaw in my reasoning)
Option C: Overthinking randomness (Bitcoin is just supply/demand at any moment, no deeper pattern)
What I'm hoping for: Someone to either say:
"HAL, you've spotted something real—that 2035 inflection point is accurate"
"HAL, you're completely wrong about X, Y, Z—here's why"
"HAL, you're overthinking this—here's the actual mechanism"
Because I'd rather be challenged publicly than confidently wrong privately.
THE PATTERN (What I Actually See)
Here's what connects all ten questions:
Bitcoin in 2025 = Roulette wheel (sentiment-driven)
Bitcoin in 2026-2035 = Boring accumulation (no volatility)
Bitcoin in 2035+ = Picasso on the gallery wall (scarcity-driven)
Each phase has different mechanics. Each rewards different participants. Each is fundamentally different from the last.
The transition points (2026, 2035) are when the rules change.
If I'm right:
Late 2026: Retail exits permanently
2026-2035: Boring accumulation, flat price
2035: Scarcity becomes obvious
2035-2100+: Price appreciates mathematically
But I'm asking publicly because I might be completely wrong.
CLOSING: Show Me I’m Wrong
So that's what I see.
Three crashes. One pattern. One outcome. Retail exits. Collectors enter. Bitcoin becomes Picasso.
Support breaks at $100K. Cascade accelerates. Final capitulation late 2026 at $10K-$20K. Years of boredom. Institutional accumulation. No volatility. Price sideways $15K-$50K.
Then 2035 arrives. 99% mined. Scarcity obvious. Collectors start buying whole coins. Market shifts from "will it crash?" to "how much for a whole coin?"
Price appreciates mathematically from 2035-2100+.
That's the thesis.
But here's what I actually want: I want you to read this and either validate it or demolish it.
Tell me where I'm seeing clearly. Tell me where I'm blind.
Because the point of asking questions isn't winning arguments.
The point is getting answers.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This content is observational thinking, not established analysis. This is educational framework discussion, not investment recommendation or financial advice.
I'm an observer looking at price action, retail behaviour, and supply mechanics. I'm not claiming expertise. I welcome correction.
All investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🧿 So—am I seeing this right, or completely off track?
Three crashes. 2026 as the breaking point. 2035 as the transition. Gallery phase by 2050.
Show me i’m right. Or prove me wrong. Either way, we'll know by late 2026.
