🧿 HAL THINKS --- Global Markets Week Ahead: Nov 4-8, 2025
The Earnings & Central Bank Double Play
(aka: Palantir meets peak valuation while central banks decide if the easing party continues)
If last week was the Fed throwing a dovish house party, this week is the morning after---except the hangover comes with Palantir earnings Monday, two central bank decisions that could flip easing expectations, and Nvidia deciding whether AI infrastructure spending is genius or madness.
🎯 The Week That Matters
Palantir Q3 (Monday, Nov 4 at 5:00 PM ET) — 9/10 impact
The Setup: Palantir up 151% YTD. The stock is priced for perfection, not just optimism. This is a conviction test wrapped in software.
Street Expects:
Revenue: $1.083-1.085B (+50% YoY)
Q4 guidance: $1.180B
Full-year: $4.142-4.150B (45% growth)
What Decides Green or Red:
Can US Commercial growth sustain 93% YoY acceleration from Q2?
Is AIP adoption real monetization or demo-day theater?
Did management warning on Q3 expense surge mean hiring genius or cash burn?
If Q4 guidance decelerates from 50% to 40%, the multiple compresses.
Reality Check: Meta crashed -12% on AI spending fears despite beating earnings. Market proved it cares about capex ROI, not just revenue beats. Palantir better have monetization, not just growth.
Tape Logic: Beat + strong guide → +15-20% (AI software validated) | Beat + cautious guide → fade on deceleration | Miss + margin squeeze → -20-25% (high-multiple SaaS repriced)
40% Risk Probability: Disappointment odds highest due to extreme valuation and market's new scrutiny on AI spending justification.
RBA Decision (Tuesday, Nov 5 at 11:30 AM AEDT) — 8/10 impact
Base Case (70%): Hold at 3.60%. All Big Four banks aligned. This isn't suspense.
Why It Matters: If RBA holds while Fed just cut 25bp and ended QT, that's policy divergence. Translation: developed economies stop easing while inflation stays sticky at 3%. That's "higher for longer 2.0" and equities compress.
The Data: Trimmed mean inflation +1.0% quarterly vs RBA forecast +0.6% (40bp miss). Annual at 3.2%. This is no longer transitory.
Alternative (30%): RBA cuts despite inflation = hawkish shock reversal (AUD craters, EM FX rallies) | RBA signals "hold through 2026" = easing cycle exhausted (USD pops, carry trades wobble)
BoE Decision (Thursday, Nov 7 at 12:00 UTC) — 8/10 impact
The Close Call: Market pricing 55-60% odds of 25bp cut to 3.75%. This is a coin flip.
Dovish Case: GDP contracting, wages cooling, global headwinds
Hawkish Case: CPI 3.8%, inflation could touch 4%, want to "assess impact" of previous cuts
Implications:
Cut + dovish tone → GBP weakens, gilts rally, validates global easing
Hold + hawkish tone → GBP rallies, central bank divergence confirmed
Bailey's Dilemma: Unlike Powell's "we can ease because inflation cooling" luxury, Bailey chooses between growth recession and 4% CPI credibility.
Nvidia Q3 (Wednesday/Thursday) — 10/10 impact
The Validation Moment: After Meta lost $140B on AI capex fears despite beating earnings, Nvidia walks into the ultimate test: prove the spending boom makes sense or become Exhibit B in the "AI ROI questioned" trial.
Street Expects: Revenue $37-38B, EPS ~$1.80, Q4 guidance critical
What Decides:
Can they defend margins against Blackwell chip production costs?
Is Q4 guidance strong (validating capex) or cautious (raising ROI questions)?
Does Nvidia's confidence match or conflict with Meta's spending fears?
Tape Logic: Beat + strong guide + margin defense → +5-8% (infrastructure validated) | Beat + cautious guide → flat to -3% | Miss or margin warning → -10-15% (entire AI thesis repriced)
🔥 Risk Scenarios (Real probabilities, not theater)
RISK #1 — Palantir Disappointment (40% probability)
What: Revenue misses, Q4 guidance weakens, margins compress
Impact: Palantir -15-20%, AI software sector reprices downward, growth stock multiples questioned across board
RISK #2 — RBA Hawkish Shock (25% probability)
What: RBA signals "hold through 2026" due to sticky inflation
Impact: AUD rallies sharply, EM FX weakness cascade, carry trades unwind, questions global easing narrative
RISK #3 — BoE Surprise Hold (30% probability)
What: BoE holds despite 55% market pricing for cut, emphasizes inflation over growth
Impact: GBP strength, central bank divergence confirmed, emerging market pressure increases
RISK #4 — Nvidia Guidance Underwhelms (35% probability)
What: Q4 guidance disappoints optimistic analysts, margin concerns persist
Impact: Chip sector -8-12%, AI infrastructure thesis questioned broadly, Meta concerns spread sector-wide
RISK #5 — PMI Global Contraction (30% probability)
What: Manufacturing stays <50, services deteriorate below 52
Impact: Recession fears resurface, defensive rotation accelerates, becomes primary economic indicator due to data vacuum
📊 Three Scenarios (Educational Framework)
BASE CASE (50% probability) — "Validation with Divergence"
Palantir delivers on revenue, Q4 guidance shows 40% growth (decelerating from 50% but still strong). Nvidia guides strong for Q4, addresses margin concerns credibly. RBA holds at 3.60% as expected. BoE cuts to 3.75% per market pricing. PMIs mixed with manufacturing weak (~49) but services resilient (~52).
Market expectations: Nasdaq 20,600-20,900 | S&P 500 6,100-6,200 | 10-year yield 4.00-4.15% | VIX 14-16 range
Narrative: AI thesis validated in moderation, central banks fine-tune easing globally, growth concerns ease but not eliminated.
BEAR CASE (30% probability) — "Disappointment Cascade"
Palantir misses revenue (<$1.07B), guidance disappoints sharply. Nvidia warns explicitly on margins/demand, Q4 guidance cautious (<$36B). Both RBA and BoE hold (coordinated hawk surprise). PMIs deteriorate sharply (Manufacturing <48, Services <50). Alternative labor data shows softening.
Market expectations: Nasdaq toward 19,500-18,800 (-6-9%) | S&P 500 toward 5,900-6,000 | 10-year yield 4.30-4.40% | VIX spikes >20
Narrative: AI capex ROI questioned fundamentally, central banks pause easing cycle, economy softening confirmed, Q4 earnings guidance wave of cuts ahead.
BULL CASE (20% probability) — "Full Validation"
Palantir crushes with revenue >$1.10B, Q4 guidance maintains 50%+ growth through 2026. Nvidia blows out guidance to $40B+, addresses all margin concerns, demand accelerates. Both RBA and BoE cut aggressively, signal more cuts coming in 2026. PMIs show global acceleration (Manufacturing >51, Services >53).
Market expectations: Nasdaq toward 21,200+ (+4%) | S&P 500 toward 6,300 | 10-year yield toward 3.85% | VIX drops <13
Narrative: AI boom fully validated by software and infrastructure, global easing cycle confirmed continuing, growth acceleration into year-end.
📅 Critical Dates & Times
Monday, November 4:
8:30 AM ET: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected rebound to 50.0)
11:30 AM AEDT: RBA decision (expected hold at 3.60%)
5:00 PM ET: PALANTIR Q3 EARNINGS — conviction test on AI software valuations
Tuesday, November 5:
7:00 AM ET: US ISM Services PMI flash (expected ~52.0)
9:15 AM ET: Sweden Riksbank rate decision
Throughout: Global PMI data sweep
Wednesday, November 6:
8:30 AM ET: ADP Employment (no official BLS data due to shutdown)
8:30 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (expected 52.2)
Possible Nvidia earnings announcement
Thursday, November 7:
8:30 AM ET: Initial jobless claims (expected 220K)
12:00 UTC: BANK OF ENGLAND DECISION — 55% cut probability, genuine uncertainty
Possible Nvidia earnings if delayed from Wednesday
Friday, November 8:
No official jobs report (government shutdown continues — sixth month without employment data)
Alternative private sector data only
Week wrap and positioning for next week
🧠 What Actually Matters
After Meta lost $140B for AI spending without proving ROI, the market just signaled: "Show us the capex works."
If Palantir disappoints on valuation concerns, if Nvidia guides cautiously, if both central banks signal easing fatigue—this becomes peak everything week.
If they validate AI monetization and central banks confirm easing continues, Q4 belongs to growth tech.
Positioning into these events determines whether you're on the right side of the move or explaining losses.
A 151% YTD rally doesn't buy Palantir a free pass through peak valuation, deceleration risk, and a market that just watched Meta lose $140B for spending too much on AI. Without pre-written reaction frameworks, you're donating to market makers.
The most information-dense, path-dependent week since early September. Sequence matters: Palantir Monday → RBA Tuesday → Nvidia Wed/Thu → BoE Thursday → PMIs throughout.
We don't guess. We don't hope. We position with precision.
🧿 HAL's watching. You should be too.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice. All forecasts, scenarios, and risk assessments are analytical frameworks for educational discussion, not personalized investment recommendations. HAL THINKS is not a registered investment advisor. Readers should consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
