🧿 HAL THINKS — Weekly Market Scorecard Week Review: March 24–28, 2026

“Calm… But Not Conviction”

Markets were handed a ceasefire.

And, as expected, they did what markets always do when given an excuse to relax…

They took it.

But the forecast wasn’t that simple.

The call was very specific:

This would not be a clean “risk-on rally”…
It would be a fragile stabilisation, lacking conviction, with oil, yields and policy still in control.

So the question is:

Did markets behave… or did they expose the cracks?

📊 1️⃣ Core Thesis — “Relief, Not Resolution”

The central idea was that the ceasefire would compress risk temporarily, but not remove it.

That proved accurate.

Markets stabilised:

• Volatility eased
• Equities attempted a bounce
• Risk sentiment improved at the margin

But crucially…

There was no breakout.

No surge of conviction.
No broad-based rally.

Exactly as expected.

This wasn’t confidence.

It was relief.

Score: A

🛢 2️⃣ Oil — Range-Bound Reality

The key call:

Oil would not collapse… it would sit uncomfortably high.

That played out almost perfectly.

Oil remained:

• Elevated
• Range-bound
• Directionless — but not benign

And that mattered.

Because it kept:

• inflation expectations sticky
• central banks cautious
• markets slightly uneasy

There was no disinflation boost from energy.

Which was the entire point.

Score: A

🏦 3️⃣ Central Banks — “Pause ≠ Dovish”

The forecast was clear:

Markets would try to interpret central bank tone as dovish…

But it would actually be hesitation.

That distinction held.

Policy messaging remained:

• cautious
• non-committal
• dependent on incoming data

No acceleration toward rate cuts.

No strong pivot.

Just… waiting.

Markets initially leaned dovish — then corrected.

That nuance was exactly what we expected.

Score: A

📊 4️⃣ Positioning & Flows — Selective, Not Broad

This was one of the more subtle calls.

The expectation:

Not a full re-risking… but a partial, selective unwind.

And that’s exactly what we saw.

• Some capital moved back into risk
• But flows were uneven
• Leadership remained narrow

There was no “everything rally”.

Just pockets of strength.

This is classic low-conviction positioning.

Score: A-

🔄 5️⃣ Cross-Asset Behaviour — Still Interlocked

The forecast emphasised that markets would remain tightly linked:

• Equities tied to yields
• Oil tied to inflation expectations
• Gold constrained by real rates

That structure held.

Nothing moved independently.

Everything fed into everything else.

Which is exactly what you see in a market that hasn’t resolved its core uncertainty.

Score: A

📅 6️⃣ Data vs Geopolitics — Who Wins?

The expectation:

Data would matter…

But geopolitics would still sit in the background, ready to override it.

That’s exactly what happened.

Economic data influenced intraday moves.

But the broader tone remained anchored to:

• oil behaviour
• geopolitical stability
• policy expectations

Data didn’t lead the market.

It adjusted it.

Score: A-

🟢 7️⃣ Winners — Defensive Strength Held

Expected winners:

• Energy
• Financials
• US large caps

All held up well.

Energy remained supported by oil.
Financials benefited from rate stability.
US large caps continued to attract capital as a relative safe haven.

Nothing explosive.

But consistent.

Score: A

🔴 8️⃣ Losers — Pressure Without Collapse

Expected laggards:

• Europe
• Consumer sectors
• Long-duration growth

All showed relative weakness.

But importantly:

No collapse.

This wasn’t a risk-off event — it was a performance divergence.

Exactly as forecast.

Score: A-

🌏 9️⃣ China — Still Background Noise

The call:

China would not drive markets… but could influence the tone.

That held.

No major surprises.
No dominant impact.

China remained a secondary variable.

Score: B+

🎲 🔟 Probability Map — Did It Hold?

Base Case (60%) — Controlled stabilisation

✔ Correct

Bull Case (25%) — Broad rally

✖ Did not materialise

Bear Case (15%) — Renewed escalation

✖ Did not materialise

The base case played out cleanly.

Which is what matters most.

Score: A

⚠️ 11️⃣ What the Market Got Wrong

The forecast warned:

Markets would start to believe the crisis had passed.

And that’s exactly what we began to see.

Sentiment improved faster than fundamentals justified.

Confidence returned…

Without a corresponding improvement in:

• inflation
• energy dynamics
• policy clarity

That disconnect is still building.

Score: A

🧮 Final Scorecard

Category Grade

Core Thesis. A

Oil Behaviour. A

Central Bank Interpretation. A

Positioning & Flows. A-

Cross-Asset Dynamics. A

Data vs Geopolitics. A-

Sector Winners. A

Sector Losers. A-

China Impact. B+

Probability Map. A

Final Grade: A (90%)

No major misses.
Strong alignment with market behaviour.
Framework held throughout the week.

🧿 HAL’s Final Word

Last week wasn’t about big moves.

It was about how markets behave when the pressure eases slightly.

And what we saw was telling.

Markets didn’t surge.

They didn’t collapse.

They hovered.

Because underneath the ceasefire…

the same question remains:

What if inflation doesn’t fade as cleanly as expected?

Until that’s answered…

This isn’t a bull market.

It’s a waiting room.