🧿 HAL THINKS — Global Markets Week Ahead Week of March 24–28, 2026“Ceasefire… or Intermission?”

Markets love a ceasefire.

Not because it solves anything…
…but because it gives them permission to pretend.

Last week, everything revolved around escalation.
Oil, inflation, central banks — all orbiting one question:

“How bad does this get?”

This week, the question changes.

Not to “Is it over?”
…but to something far more dangerous:

“Can we go back to normal?”

Because the answer to that… is almost certainly no.

🌍 1️⃣ Macro Regime — The Illusion of Relief

On the surface, this looks like relief.

• Oil stabilises
• Volatility softens
• Equities attempt to lift their heads again

It all feels… calmer.

But look a little closer and nothing fundamental has actually shifted:

• Supply chains are still fragile
• Energy risk hasn’t disappeared — it’s paused
• Inflation remains one headline away from re-accelerating

This isn’t a reset.

It’s a market taking a breath…

…and mistaking it for recovery.

🛢 2️⃣ Oil — The Market’s Truth Serum

If the ceasefire is the illusion…

oil is the reality.

And right now, oil isn’t behaving the way markets would like.

Not collapsing.
Not spiking.

Just sitting there… uncomfortably high.

That’s a problem.

Because:

• Falling oil = disinflation → central banks relax
• Spiking oil = panic → markets react quickly
• Stable, elevated oil = slow-burning inflation pressure

And that’s the worst version of all.

👉 Watch the $95–$105 range carefully
👉 Break lower → markets breathe properly
👉 Break higher → inflation comes straight back into focus

For now, we’re stuck in the middle.

Which is exactly where uncertainty thrives.

🏦 3️⃣ Central Banks — Trapped, Not Relaxed

The ceasefire gives central banks a little breathing room…

…but not a way out.

Expect the tone this week to sound reassuring on the surface:

• Slightly softer language
• Less urgency
• A nod toward stability

But underneath?

Nothing has changed.

They are still dealing with the same uncomfortable equation:

Growth is weakening… but inflation risk hasn’t gone away.

So what do they do?

They stall.

And markets will be tempted to read that as dovish.

It isn’t.

It’s hesitation.

And hesitation is not policy — it’s uncertainty wearing a suit.

📊 4️⃣ Positioning & Flows — The Real Driver

This is where the story quietly shifts.

Markets came into this period positioned for:

• falling inflation
• rate cuts
• geopolitical calm

All three were challenged.

Now we’re seeing the unwind…

…but only partially.

• Some risk is being put back on
• Some hedges are being removed
• But conviction is missing

This isn’t a broad rally.

It’s selective, cautious… almost reluctant.

This is what markets look like when they don’t quite believe the narrative they’re trading.

🔄 5️⃣ Cross-Asset Behaviour — What Talks to What

Everything this week still runs through one central question:

“Has the inflation risk actually gone?”

And the answer is showing up across assets.

• Equities vs Yields
If yields stay elevated, equities struggle to push higher

• Oil vs Inflation Expectations
Oil sitting high keeps inflation uncomfortable

• Dollar vs Risk Appetite
Ceasefire softens the dollar slightly — but doesn’t break it

• Gold vs Real Yields
Gold wants to rally… but yields won’t quite let it

Nothing is moving cleanly.

Because nothing has been resolved.

📅 6️⃣ Key Dates This Week (Watch These Closely)

On paper, it’s a data-driven week.

• US Core PCE — the inflation reality check
• Eurozone inflation prints
• Central bank commentary (the unscheduled bits matter most)
• Oil inventory data

But let’s be honest…

Data matters — right up until the moment geopolitics takes over again.

And we’ve just been reminded how quickly that can happen.

🟢 7️⃣ Likely Winners This Week

🛢 Energy (But Not Exploding)

Still supported by elevated prices
No collapse means earnings visibility remains intact

🏦 Financials

Higher-for-longer rates still supportive
Less volatility helps sentiment stabilise

🇺🇸 US Large Caps

In uncertain environments, size and liquidity win
The safety trade hasn’t gone anywhere

🔴 8️⃣ Likely Losers

🇪🇺 Europe

Still the most exposed to energy dynamics
Ceasefire helps sentiment — not structure

🛍 Consumer Sectors

Costs remain sticky
Margins don’t recover just because headlines calm down

📉 Long-Duration Growth

Yields haven’t fallen enough to justify re-rating
Valuations remain… optimistic

🌏 9️⃣ China — The Silent Variable

China isn’t leading this market.

But it’s sitting quietly in the background… waiting to matter.

If stimulus strengthens:

• Commodities find support
• Global growth stabilises

If it doesn’t:

• Demand concerns creep back in quickly

China doesn’t need to dominate the story.

It just needs to tilt it.

🎲 🔟 Probability Map (This Week)

Base Case — 60%

A controlled bounce
Markets stabilise, but lack conviction
Oil remains range-bound

Bull Case — 25%

Oil drifts lower
Yields ease
Equities rally more broadly

Bear Case — 15%

Ceasefire proves fragile
Oil spikes again
Markets reverse sharply

⚠️ 1️⃣1️⃣ What the Market Is Getting Wrong

The consensus narrative is already forming:

“Crisis avoided.”

But that’s not what’s happened.

What we’ve actually got is:

Risk deferred.

And deferred risk has a habit of returning…

Usually at the point markets feel most comfortable.

🧿 HAL’s Final Word

This week isn’t defined by what happens.

It’s defined by what doesn’t.

• No escalation → markets relax
• No oil spike → inflation fears soften slightly
• No central bank shift → uncertainty lingers

That combination creates something deceptively dangerous:

False confidence.

And markets…

tend to price confidence far more aggressively than they should.

🧿 Bottom Line

The ceasefire buys time.

It does not buy clarity.

And in markets…

time without clarity isn’t stability.

It’s just volatility…

waiting for its next excuse.