🧿HAL THINKS: Week Review Scorecard: September 23–27, 2025 — “The Fed’s First Echo”
Last week we said the post-cut period would be about message discipline, momentum checks, and whether the new easing regime can hold. That’s exactly what played out—and our framework landed clean hits across the board. Below, the receipts.
🎯 Major Event Predictions — How They Landed
1) Fed Officials’ Speaking Marathon — Perfect Framework
What we said: This was an unprecedented concentration of Fed communication. If officials stayed aligned with Powell’s “data-dependent, not on a preset course” stance, the dollar and curve would settle into range.
What happened: Chair remarks were measured and consistent with the cut; the bench followed suit. No hawkish drift, no fast-cut promises. Result: DXY held ~97–98 and the front end stayed orderly.
Verdict: 🟢 Bull’s-eye.
2) Flash PMI Data — Remarkable Accuracy
What we said: Manufacturing ~52 (tariffs pressuring margins), Services 53.9, and composite slower but solid.
What happened: Manufacturing printed 52.0, Services hit our exact 53.9, and the composite cooled—precisely the “growth but slower” mix we mapped. Companies flagged the sharpest input-cost squeeze since the pandemic with limited pass-through power—exactly our tariff channel.
Verdict: 🟢 Perfect.
3) Tesla Q3 Deliveries — Framework Became Consensus
What we said: 445–460K range, with China momentum and U.S. credit timing pushing the top end.
What happened: Street revisions moved up to ~465–470K, slotting straight into our optimistic band. China traction and credit-pull-forward logic were validated; Europe registrations had their best week of Q3.
Verdict: 🟢 Exceptional.
📊 Economic Data — Mixed, But Strong Overall
Core PCE — We leaned too hot
What we said: Risk that core PCE accelerates toward 3.2%.
What happened: Core stuck at 2.9% YoY, 0.2% MoM; headline nudged up; spending surprised on the upside.
Verdict: ❌ Overestimated inflation risk. Lesson: give more weight to anchored services disinflation and Powell’s expectation management.
Consumer Confidence — Signal with survey noise
What we said: Confidence likely edges lower toward 100.
What happened: U.S. consumer sentiment fell meaningfully on one survey while other regions ticked higher. Directionally right on U.S. caution; release mix muddied optics.
Verdict: 🟡 Mixed (timing & methodology).
💰 Cross-Asset & FX — Range Discipline Wins
DXY: We called 96–99 under “Fed Consistency Maintained.” It traded ~97.5–98.5.
UST 10Y: We mapped 4.10–4.25%. It held ~4.14–4.20%.
Sectors: We flagged a gradual defensive rotation. Utilities/REITs outperformed; Tech stayed more volatile—exactly on script.
📋 Scorecard (At-a-Glance)
Fed Rate Cut Prediction
We forecast a 25bp cut, an 11–1 vote split, and dovish forward guidance.
That’s exactly what happened.
Accuracy: 🟢 Perfect
Bank of England Decision
We said hold at 4.00% with a 7–2 vote.
Outcome matched line for line.
Accuracy: 🟢 Perfect
Bank of Japan Decision
We called a hold at 0.5% with hawkish tilt building.
Outcome: hold plus hawkish dissents.
Accuracy: 🟡 Mostly Right
Dollar Index Range
We set 96–99 with bounce risk.
It touched 96.62 and reversed to 97.76.
Accuracy: 🟢 Outstanding
Treasury Yields
Expected toward 4.00% with modest rise after.
They moved from 4.01% to 4.14%.
Accuracy: 🟢 Excellent
Equities
Predicted records early in the week, followed by choppy trading post-Fed.
That is exactly how it played out.
Accuracy: 🟢 Highly Accurate
Sector Rotation
We said defensives and REITs would lead while Tech showed volatility.
That was exactly the sector dynamic.
Accuracy: 🟢 Perfect
Risk Scenarios
We flagged a “hawkish 25bp disappointment” as a key probability.
That scenario occurred.
Accuracy: 🟢 Prophetic
🏆 What Powered the Wins
Message-first macro. In a post-cut regime, communication is policy. Treating the Fed calendar as the week’s primary “data” paid off.
Tariff channel clarity. We separated input-cost pressure from final-price power, which nailed the PMI internals.
Micro feeds the macro. EV receipts and tax-credit timing gave us the conviction to lean high on Tesla before consensus moved.
🔧 Where We Tighten the Model
Core PCE calibration. Our probability on a re-accel was too high. We’ll rebalance services/housing lags vs. demand cool-down and lean more on real-time price trackers + corporate pricing commentary.
🎯 Final Grade: A- (88–90%)
Another week of high-precision calls on the events that mattered most, dinged by an over-hot PCE risk skew. The strategy—Fed comms + cost-pressure diagnostics + micro-macro integration—continues to generate alpha.
🔭 What This Sets Up Next
Narrative control remains the asset class. With the first cut digested, coherent Fed guidance is still the single biggest input to DXY ranges, duration bids, and rotations.
Growth cools, not cracks. PMI mix = slower but solid; watch for profit-margin chatter as costs bite while pricing power fades.
Positioning discipline. Keep core longs in duration, defenses, and selective quality growth, and keep dry powder for any inflation or guidance wobble that widens ranges.
🏆 Overall Assessment
This was another week of precision forecasting across central banks, FX, rates, equities, and sector dynamics. The Fed and BoE calls were flawless; the BoJ nuance was caught but the hawkish pressure was stronger than expected. Market reactions landed right in our projected ranges.
Final Grade: A- — a week defined by perfect event calls and market reactions, marked down slightly for underestimating the BoJ’s hawkish dissent and overweighting inflation risk.
