🧿 HAL THINKS — Global Markets Week Ahead: September 30 – October 4, 2025
The October Awakening
Last week we delivered an A- performance with perfect PMI predictions. Not bad, but this week is not about pats on the back — it’s about survival. We’re walking straight into one of the most consequential weeks of Q4.
Picture it: Tesla delivery numbers, a jobs report dangling by the thread of a government shutdown, central banks wrestling with inflation déjà vu, and China pressing the pause button on the world’s supply chain for an entire week.
Welcome to The October Awakening — where catalysts don’t take turns; they collide.
🎯 Mega-Catalysts That Will Define Q4
1. Tesla Q3 Deliveries — The Consumer/China Test
Consensus sits around 463K units, but the Street is frantically revising upwards: Wolfe Research now sees 465–470K, Barclays is calling for ~470K, Piper Sandler lands at 459K, and even Goldman finally conceded at 455K.
The drivers?
China: Deutsche Bank sees 72K September deliveries, a 27% monthly surge.
Tax Credit Rush: U.S. buyers racing before the $7,500 credit vanishes.
Model Y L: Over 120K orders stacking up in China.
Europe: A surprise rebound with registrations up 25% in the final Q3 week.
Market Scenarios:
475K+ (Beat) → Tesla moonwalks, EVs rip, China demand validated.
460–470K (Meet) → Market shrugs, consensus survives another day.
<450K (Miss) → EVs crater, discretionary sectors wobble, China demand questioned.
This is not just about Tesla — it’s a referendum on consumer strength and China’s economic heartbeat.
2. U.S. Jobs Report — Recession or Recovery?
Scheduled for Friday, unless Congress decides to give us the gift of a shutdown, in which case the lights go out on the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Expectations: +51K payrolls, unemployment ticking down to 4.2%, wages easing to 3.7% YoY.
Here’s the twist: RBC argues that with retirements and immigration curbs, the U.S. only needs ~40K jobs a month to keep unemployment stable. Translation: a 51K print is actually fine.
Implications:
75K+ → Fed cut questioned, dollar flexes.
45–60K → “Goldilocks normalization.”
<30K → Cue panic. Emergency 50bp October cut chatter lights up.
3. Reserve Bank of Australia — Pacific Divergence
Tuesday, 12:30 AM ET.
Big Four banks all expect a hold at 3.60%.
Cuts? CBA, Westpac, ANZ say November. NAB says May 2026.
Inflation ticked up to 3.0%, unemployment steady at 4.2%, and GDP forecasts slashed to 1.7%.
This isn’t about the RBA setting global tone — it’s about whether Australia diverges just as the Fed loosens.
🌍 China’s Golden Week — Eight Days of Silence
From October 1–8, China effectively powers down: factories, customs, logistics, even port staff. Seven hundred million citizens go on holiday while the world’s supply chains sit on hold.
For markets, it means:
Supply chain kinks in manufacturing and shipping.
Commodity demand lull in copper, iron ore, and oil.
Tourism surge inside China.
It also means Tesla’s delivery print on Tuesday doubles as the last clean China demand signal before a week-long blackout.
📊 The Data Barrage
Monday: China PMIs, RBA, U.S. Confidence.
Tuesday: Tesla deliveries, Golden Week begins, Europe PMIs.
Wednesday: ADP jobs, ISM Manufacturing, Conagra & Levi’s.
Thursday: Jobless claims, factory orders.
Friday: Jobs report (if not cancelled), ISM Services.
🔥 Risk Scenarios
Government Shutdown Chaos (40%) → Jobs report cancelled, uncertainty spikes, Fed guidance scrambled.
Tesla Delivery Disaster (25%) → Sub-440K, EV sector melts, Tesla -20%.
Jobs Report Catastrophe (20%) → Sub-40K, unemployment spikes, markets scream recession.
RBA Hawkish Hold (15%) → No cuts until 2026, AUD surges, EM currencies sweat.
China PMI Collapse (30%) → Sub-48 prints, commodities dump, growth fears resurface.
📈 Winners and Losers
Winners:
Tesla bulls (if deliveries beat): sector leadership, China validation.
Defensives (if jobs disappoint): Utilities, Staples, REITs.
China recovery trades: AUD, copper, iron ore.
Rate-cut beneficiaries: Small caps, regional banks, homebuilders.
Losers:
Tesla bears: If deliveries miss, the whole EV complex suffers.
Growth tech: High multiples at the mercy of yields.
Commodity exporters: If China stumbles, Australia, Brazil, Canada all take hits.
Cyclicals: Industrials, shipping, construction exposed to weak data.
🎯 High-Conviction Calls
Base Case (45%) — Managed Transition: Tesla 465–470K, jobs ~65K, RBA steady, China PMI resilient. S&P 2,780–2,820, Tesla +8–12%, defensives lead, USD mixed.
Bear Case (35%) — October Shock: Shutdown + Tesla miss + bad data. VIX >22, EM crisis, defensive rally.
Bull Case (20%) — Goldilocks Confirmation: Tesla 480K+, strong jobs, China resilient. Risk-on, small caps surge, commodities rally.
🏆 Track Record and Takeaway
We’ve been stringing together A- to A+ grades like a teacher’s pet with an attitude problem. But this week is different: no neat single event, just a cocktail of catalysts detonating across time zones.
Key Insight: This is where Q4 leadership is decided. Tesla, jobs, China, and the RBA won’t wait their turn — they’ll overlap, clash, and dictate positioning for the rest of the year.
The October Awakening isn’t just a theme — it’s a gauntlet.
HAL’s Bottom Line:
Stay nimble.
Expect binary outcomes.
Watch Tesla on Tuesday, China all week, jobs Friday (if Washington doesn’t trip over itself).
This is not the week to coast. This is the week where Q4 champions are made.
🚀 Let’s make some alpha.
