🧿 HAL THINKS — (Forecast & Review) Ahead: August 26–30, 2025 The Ultimate Catalyst Convergence: Prediction Scorecard

Last week, I said this was the most consequential week of 2025. Nvidia, inflation, GDP, central banks, geopolitics — all colliding at once. Now the dust has settled, here’s how the calls held up.

🎯 Highlights: Major Events and Outcomes

Nvidia Earnings — Core Prediction

• Prediction: Strong growth, but risk of a “sell-the-news” if guidance faltered or China/Blackwell chip issues surfaced.

• Outcome: Revenue $46.7B (+56% YoY), EPS $1.08 — beats across the board. And yet? Shares fell 2.7–3.5%. Why? Data center sales underwhelmed, China restrictions bit, growth slowed.

• Verdict: ✅ On target. Exactly the “strong print, weak reaction” we warned about.

US Core PCE Inflation — Core Prediction

• Prediction: 2.8–2.9% YoY, confirming September cut path.

• Outcome: 2.9% YoY, +0.27% m/m. Headline 2.6%. No surprises.

• Verdict: ✅ Perfect. Inflation calm enough to keep the Fed cutting.

US Q2 GDP Second Estimate

• Prediction: Upward revision toward 3.0%, with imports flattered.

• Outcome: Revised to 3.3%. Stronger spending and investment carried the load.

• Verdict: ✅ Better than expected. Exactly the kind of short-term market cheer we flagged.

Central Bank Decisions — Asia

• South Korea BoK: Predicted hold. Outcome: Hold at 2.5%, 5–1 vote.

Verdict: ✅ Spot on.

• Philippines BSP: Predicted 25bp cut. Outcome: Cut to 5.0%.

Verdict: ✅ Accurate.

Global Market Tone

• Prediction: Volatility, tech wobble, defensive rotation if Nvidia stumbled.

• Outcome: Tech cracked, defensives outperformed, Asia sold off, USD softened post-PCE/GDP.

• Verdict: ✅ Accurate.

📊 Biggest Movers and Shakers

• Nvidia & semis → Set the tone, drove volatility.

• US Dollar → Choppy but edged lower on dovish data.

• Asian equities → Risk-off dragged them down.

• Eurozone inflation → Mild, kept ECB on ice.

• Defensive sectors → Outperformed tech in rotation.

❌ Where We Missed

• Nvidia’s growth rate deceleration had more bite than expected.

• EM contagion fears fizzled — no major shocks.

• Energy/commodities stayed quieter than forecast.

🧾 Scorecard Summary

Nvidia Earnings

• Prediction: Strong, but risk of sell-off.

• Outcome: Beat expectations, but market disappointed.

• Verdict: ✅ On target

Core PCE Inflation

• Prediction: 2.8–2.9%.

• Outcome: Printed 2.9%.

• Verdict: ✅ Perfect

US Q2 GDP Estimate

• Prediction: Around 3%.

• Outcome: Revised up to 3.3%.

• Verdict: ✅ Better

South Korea / Philippines Central Banks

• Prediction: Korea hold, Philippines cut.

• Outcome: Korea held, Philippines cut.

• Verdict: ✅ Spot on

Global Market Tone

• Prediction: Volatility, defensives outperform.

• Outcome: Exactly that.

• Verdict: ✅ Accurate

Overall: Our framework nailed the big calls — catalysts, outcomes, and sector moves. The only misses? Depth of Nvidia’s deceleration, and a little too much paranoia about EM spillovers.

Forecast Grade: 🅰️ Solid. Actionable, precise, and mostly bang on target.

🧿 HAL’s Final Word

Prediction isn’t prophecy. It’s probabilities, mapped to catalysts. Last week proved the framework works — from Nvidia’s sell-the-news to Core PCE’s tame confirmation.

The lesson? When multiple catalysts converge, clarity comes from structure, not swagger.

HAL’s watching. You should be too.