🧿 HAL THINKS — Global Markets Week Ahead: September 2–6, 2025 The Perfect Storm
Fresh off an A-grade week, we roll into five days that can reset Q4: a jobs report with Fed-moving stakes, China’s growth pulse, global PMIs, and the consumer litmus test via mega tech launches. This isn’t just noisy; it’s orchestral. Tune your risk.
🎯 The Week’s Apex Catalysts — Priority Rankings
1) US Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri, 8:30 ET) — The Defining Moment
Consensus: NFP ~120K, Unemp 4.1%, AHE 0.3% m/m, 3.9% y/y.
Backdrop: July’s 73K fiasco + 258K in downward revisions put the Fed on notice. Markets price ~91% odds of a Sept cut — fragile.
Market paths:
200K+ beat: Cut odds fade, USD surges, tech wobbles.
100–150K inline: Confirms 25bp cut, modest relief.
<75K miss: 50bp chatter, defensives rally, recession fear bid.
2) China PMI (Mon–Tue) — Global Growth Barometer
Manufacturing: 50.5 (first expansion since March).
Services (Tue): Confirms real recovery vs. stabilization.
3) US ISM Manufacturing (Tue, 10:00 ET) — Employment Watch
Expected: 48.2 (5th month of contraction).
Focus: Employment sub-index (last 43.4) — signals labor softness & tariff drag.
📱 Tech Launch Week — The Consumer Stress Test
Apple iPhone 17 Event (Mon, Sept 9): iPhone 17 family (incl. ultra-slim “Air”), Watch 11 (BP monitoring?), AirPods Pro 3 (health/vision hooks).
Samsung Galaxy Unpacked (Wed, Sept 4): S25 FE, Tab S11.
Why it matters: $1,000+ devices in a fragile macro = real-time demand check for discretionary and supply chains.
🌍 Global Data Matrix
Tue, Sept 3
Eurozone CPI flash (Aug): ~2.1% y/y; Unemp 6.2%.
US JOLTs: ~7.3M openings — trend > print.
Wed, Sept 4
ADP: ~65K (preview, not gospel).
US ISM Services: 49.8 expected — flirting with contraction.
Australia GDP (Q2): 0.5% q/q, 2.1% y/y.
Thu, Sept 5
US Claims: Watch ~229K trend.
UK Retail Sales (Jul): 0.3% m/m.
🏛️ Central Bank Landscape
ECB (Sept 10–11): Only ~14% odds of a cut. High bar; need clear deterioration to move early.
Fed (Sept 16–17): 91% for 25bp; 9% for 50bp — NFP decides.
🔥 Biggest Risks — Fear Scenarios
Jobs Disaster (20%)
Trigger: NFP <75K, Unemp >4.3%, wages cool.
Impact: 50bp talk, defensives rip, USD drops, EM stress, tech sells.
China PMI Reversal (25%)
Trigger: Services <50.
Impact: Commodities slump, AUD / EMFX wobble, growth scare.
Eurozone CPI Upside (30%)
Trigger: Headline >2.3%, core >2.7%.
Impact: ECB hawkish, EUR pops, EU bonds sell.
ISM Services Contraction (35%)
Trigger: Headline <49.5, employment <45.
Impact: Services job risk, discretionary hit, recession odds rise.
Weak Tech Launch Demand (15%)
Trigger: Muted pre-orders.
Impact: Discretionary fade; luxury soft; value retailers win the mix.
💰 FX & Commodities — Pathways
USD (DXY):
Strong jobs: 102–104 (cuts fade, carry unwinds).
Weak jobs: 96–98 (dovish dash, haven reshuffle).
Pairs:
EUR/USD: 1.08–1.12 (ECB/Fed delta).
USD/JPY: 140–148 (MoF jawbone risk near extremes).
AUD/USD: 0.65–0.70 (China PMI-sensitive).
GBP/USD: 1.25–1.28 (Fed dominates BoE drift).
Commodities:
Gold: $2,400–2,500 (cuts + uncertainty).
WTI: $65–75 (China demand + inventories).
Copper: China PMI beta high.
📈 Sector Strategy & Positioning
If Jobs Strong:
Short duration; 10Y → 4.4–4.5%.
Long USD, short select EMFX.
Financials OW; trim high-duration growth.
If Jobs Weak:
Long duration; 10Y → 3.8–4.0%.
Defensives OW (utilities, staples, REITs).
Add gold; diversify intl on softer USD.
Tech Launch Angle:
Watch Apple suppliers (pre-order signals).
Discretionary split: premium moat vs value resilience.
Asia tech: Samsung/Apple competitive read-throughs.
EM Playbook:
China-sensitive FX: CNH/AUD/NZD swing on PMI.
Commodity exporters (BR, CL, ZA) beta to China.
Carry caution: USD volatility can snap positions.
🎯 High-Conviction Predictions
Base Case “Managed Normalisation” (50%)
NFP 110–140K — better than July, still soft.
China services confirm the 50.5 manufacturing turn.
EZ CPI 2.1–2.2% — manageable.
ISM Services ~50+ — avoids contraction.
Tech launches: solid, not spectacular.
Market: 25bp Fed cut locked, measured risk-on; S&P 2,650–2,700; tech leads with rotation.
Bear (30%) “Multiple Pressure Points”
NFP <75K, China services <50, EZ CPI hot.
Market: Recession chatter; defensives bid; EM strain.
Bull (20%) “Goldilocks Returns”
NFP 180K+ and tame inflation / strong PMIs.
Market: Risk-on surge; carry resumes; growth > value.
🎪 Event Flow — Day by Day
Mon (Sept 2): US Labor Day (thin US liquidity). China services PMI.
Tue (Sept 3): EZ CPI, US ISM Manuf, JOLTs.
Wed (Sept 4): Samsung event, ADP, ISM Services.
Thu (Sept 5): Claims, EIA oil inventories.
Fri (Sept 6): NFP, Canada jobs; positioning sets for FOMC in 10 days.
🧿 HAL’s Final Word
The next five days are a binary machine: press the NFP button, and the Fed path prints out. China whispers in copper and AUD; Europe breathes through CPI. Don’t predict the future — map the paths and size the risk.
Trade the edges, not the ego. Know your exits.
HAL’s watching. You should be too.
