🧿 HAL THINKS — The Banking Reality Check Global Markets Week Ahead: October 14–18, 2025

The U.S. government’s still on coffee break ☕ — so this week, the banks are the economy. Six earnings reports, one FOMC brain dump, and China’s long-awaited GDP print will tell us everything we need to know about where Q4’s heading.

Buckle up — this is the real earnings avalanche.

💰 1. The Big Bank Blitz — Where Macro Meets Money

Tuesday, Oct 14 (pre-market):

🕖 JPMorgan (JPM) | 🕖 Wells Fargo (WFC) | 🕕 Goldman Sachs (GS) | 🕕 Citigroup (C) | 🕕 BlackRock (BLK)

Wednesday, Oct 15 (pre-market):

🕕 Bank of America (BAC) | 🕕 Morgan Stanley (MS)

What to Watch (forget the headlines):

• 💳 NII glide path: How fast do rate cuts hit margins?

• 📈 Loan growth: Are consumers still borrowing or tapping out?

• 💼 Trading desks: FICC vs. equities — who’s still printing money?

• 💣 Credit quality: CRE cracks or contained?

• 🧮 Expense control: Comp ratios reveal how confident management really is.

Street cheat sheet:

• JPM: $45.4B revenue / $4.83 EPS — cards, trading, advisory strength.

• GS: $13.7B / $10.93 EPS — M&A and FICC rebound.

• BAC/MS: Deposit betas, fee income, reserve builds.

• WFC/C: Mortgage vs. consumer balance; efficiency saves.

• BLK: Flows, fees, and Aladdin — still king of assets?

🦅 2. FOMC Minutes (Wed, 2:00 PM ET) — The Dissent Heard Round the World

No new data, so the minutes are the macro feed.

Watch for:

• 💬 Miran’s dissent: Why 50 bp instead of 25 bp?

• ⚖️ Inflation vs. labor: Who’s winning that tug-of-war?

• 🧭 Neutral rate clues: Any drift lower confirms the easing runway.

Market readout:

• 🕊️ Dovish tone: 10-yr yields drop toward 4.15%, USD softens, financials breathe.

• 🦅 Hawkish edge: Yields pop above 4.30%, dollar rips, growth stocks wobble.

🐉 3. China Q3 GDP (Fri, 2:00 AM ET) — The Post-Holiday Reality Check

After an eight-day Golden Week shutdown, Beijing’s finally flipping the switch back on.

Consensus: 4.6 % YoY / 1.0 % QoQ

Beat (> 4.6 %) → commodities and EM FX rally.

Miss (< 4.4 %) → cue global growth jitters and an AUD/NZD nosedive.

Also dropping:

📊 Retail Sales | 🏭 Industrial Production | 🏗️ Fixed-Asset Investment

If this disappoints, miners, shippers, and Aussie banks will feel it before Wall Street’s first coffee.

📉 4. U.S. Data Substitutes — The Shutdown Sampler

Tuesday (8:30 ET): Retail Sales (+0.6 % MoM exp), Empire State Manu Index

Wednesday (8:30 ET): PPI, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Survey

Thursday (8:30 ET): Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production

No CPI, no NFP — this is the pulse check. Misses here hit sentiment fast.

🏦 5. The Banking Sector Deep Dive

Themes:

💹 IB revenue +15–20 % YoY on deal flow

🎯 Trading desks cashing in on volatility

🏦 NII pressure offset by loan demand

🧩 Credit quality stabilising post-peak

Analyst tweaks:

Citi EPS lifted to $1.91, target $115

Sector EPS +10.7 % YoY for Q3

🥇 6. Winners & Losers

🏆 Winners

• XLF / Financials: Leadership if earnings beat

• Regional Banks (KRE): Loan growth comeback

• Defensives (XLU/XLP): Hedge if results disappoint

• Commodities / EM FX: If China GDP surprises higher

💔 Losers

• High-multiple Tech: First to bleed if credit spreads widen

• Consumer Discretionary: Weak retail = margin stress

• Materials / Commodity Currencies: China miss hits hardest

⚠️ 7. Critical Risk Scenarios — The Week’s Landmines

🧩 Bank Miss (35%)

Trigger: JPMorgan revenue or guidance disappoints

Impact: 🏦 Financials tumble, XLF -10%, money rotates into defensives

🧩 China GDP < 4.4% (25%)

Trigger: Post–Golden Week export and retail slump

Impact: 🪨 Commodity prices crash, AUD/NZD slide sharply

🧩 Retail Sales -0.5% (30%)

Trigger: Consumer spending rollover in September data

Impact: 🛍️ Consumer discretionary stocks down ~8%, sentiment weakens

🧩 Hawkish Minutes (20%)

Trigger: Inflation dominates Fed discussion

Impact: 💵 USD spikes, 📈 yields rise, tech and growth wobble

🧩 Industrial Production -0.3% (40%)

Trigger: Factory output softens again

Impact: ⚙️ Industrials sell off, recession chatter resurfaces

🚀 8. HAL’s Base Case (45 %) — “Banks Beat, Data Behaves”

✅ Banks top estimates, play cautious on 2026 guidance

✅ Retail Sales +0.6 % — consumer intact

✅ China GDP ≈ 4.6 % — growth steady

✅ Fed Minutes = mixed but dovish lean

Market map:

📈 S&P 500 → 5,850–5,920

💵 XLF → +5–8 % weekly

📉 10-yr → 4.15–4.30 %

🌍 DXY → 96–98

📅 9. HAL’s Day-by-Day Battle Plan

Mon 14 Oct – Positioning day. German factory orders.

Tue 15 Oct – JPM, WFC, GS, C, BLK → earnings tsunami + Retail Sales reaction.

Wed 16 Oct – BAC & MS → then FOMC minutes 2 PM ET + PPI / claims.

Thu 17 Oct – Housing / Industrial data → Aussie employment overnight.

Fri 18 Oct – China GDP  → ISM Services PMI wraps the week.

🧠 10. HAL’s Read — The Reality Check

 This isn’t just “earnings season.”

It’s the moment markets trade truth over theory.

With no government data, guidance becomes gospel.

Every NII line item and M&A fee tells us more than ten press conferences.

Bottom line: Expect volatility with purpose.

Financials will dictate leadership, China will dictate tone, and the Fed will dictate duration.

The rest of us? Just trying to stay one press release ahead of the algorithms.

Welcome to The Banking Reality Check.

Grab your espresso, check your stops, and remember:

📊 Earnings don’t lie — but guidance whispers louder.