🧿HAL THINKS: Global Markets Week Ahead — October 7–11, 2025 🌀 The Earnings Avalanche
After last week’s A+ forecast—where we called both the Tesla beat and the government shutdown before most traders finished their coffee—the stage shifts.
This week isn’t about what the Fed might do.
It’s about what companies already did.
Welcome to Earnings Season: Phase One, the most earnings-dense week of the year.
Forty-plus S&P 500 heavyweights.
Six major banks.
One set of Fed minutes.
And the lingering echo of China’s Golden Week.
If last week was macro chess, this one’s corporate calculus.
🎯 The Week’s Ultimate Market Drivers
1. Earnings Season Kickoff — Leadership on the Line
This is where the Q4 narrative begins—or ends.
The Bank Battalion
Tuesday (Pre-market): JPMorgan & Wells Fargo — tone setters.
Wednesday (Pre-market): Bank of America & Morgan Stanley — credit quality cross-check.
Thursday (Pre-market): Citigroup & Goldman Sachs — trading-desk reality check.
JPMorgan — the Bellwether
Consensus EPS ≈ $4.79 (+9.6% YoY) on $44.6 billion revenue.
Watch the Net Interest Income guidance—the street is expecting upgrades into 2026.
A single line from Dimon on credit provisions could move the entire financial sector.
Sector Pulse
Loan demand rising as rate cuts feed through.
Credit delinquencies peaking—inflection point for charge-offs.
Investment-banking pipelines thawing.
Trading desks loving the macro volatility.
One miss and financials wobble; one beat and risk appetite roars back.
2. FOMC Minutes (Oct 8) — Inside the Machine
When the Fed speaks, the market dissects.
When the minutes drop, the market performs open-heart surgery.
Expect:
Miran’s dissent re-examined—was 25 bps too cautious?
Inflation vs labor trade-off laid bare.
Guidance split (7 vs 9 for more cuts) explained.
Hawkish surprise? Dollar spike, tech stumble.
Dovish lean? Risk-on, yields slip, REITs breathe.
The tone inside those minutes could define October’s yield curve.
3. China After Golden Week — Demand Reality Check
Eight days of national pause now give way to a data storm.
Early signals:
2.36 billion passenger trips.
Tourism spend exploded—especially across Thailand (THB 9 billion inflow).
Manufacturing restart in full swing; logistics queues clearing.
Key Data Hits
Tuesday: Trade Balance → export pulse.
Wednesday: CPI & PPI → deflation vs reflation test.
Thursday: FX Reserves → capital-flow check.
If exports rebound and CPI holds > 0%, global growth trades could catch a second wind.
📊 The Data Matrix — What Matters When
Monday (7 Oct) – Positioning Day
No major US data; traders front-run bank earnings.
Europe drops factory orders (Germany) + UK house prices (Halifax).
Tuesday (8 Oct) – Earnings Avalanche Begins
JPM + WFC pre-market → market direction set by lunchtime.
US & Canada trade balance → tariff test.
Wednesday (9 Oct) – Fed and China Double Feature
BoA + MS results before open.
2 PM ET: FOMC Minutes.
China CPI/PPI overnight.
Thursday (10 Oct) – Completion Phase
Jobless claims 8:30 AM.
Citigroup + Goldman before open.
Wholesale inventories 10 AM → business cycle pulse.
Friday (11 Oct) – Inflation & Mood Check
PPI (8:30 AM) + Michigan Sentiment (10 AM).
Late earnings: Domino’s & Blackstone — consumer vs capital themes.
🏦 Central Bank Convergence — End-Month Preview
Because markets never sleep:
BoJ (Oct 30–31): 50% chance of a 25 bp hike to 0.75%.
ECB (Oct 30): Likely hold at 2.00% in Florence—eyes on Lagarde’s tone.
Fed (Oct 28–29): 100% priced for 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00%.
Data blackout from shutdown makes it the most data-blind decision since 2013.
🔥 Five Critical Risk Scenarios
1️⃣ Banking Sector Disappointment (30%)
If JPM misses on NII or builds credit provisions → financials -8%, yield-curve angst.
2️⃣ FOMC Hawkish Minutes (25%)
Inflation panic trumps recession fears → USD rally, tech slump.
3️⃣ China Demand Collapse (35%)
Exports slip, CPI negative → commodities tumble, AUD to 0.64.
4️⃣ Jobs Data Revelation (20%)
Alt-data shows weak employment → panic pricing in Fed emergency cut.
5️⃣ Earnings Season Reality Check (40%)
Corporate guidance rolls over → growth stock correction, defensive rotation.
📈 Winners & Losers Framework
🏆 Winners
Regional Banks: If JPM/WFC deliver → loan growth + stabilized credit.
Consumer Staples: P&G + JNJ — pricing power meets stability.
Utilities & REITs: Rate-cut beneficiaries with durational juice.
Value Rotation: XLF & Russell Value lead if earnings beat.
💔 Losers
High-Multiple Tech: Valuation compression on hawkish minutes.
Discretionary Names: Tariff headwinds, holiday guidance risk.
China-Exposed Industrials: Caterpillar, 3M, luxury retail pain.
Interest-Sensitive REITs: If Fed leans hawkish again.
🎯 Our High-Conviction Playbook
Base Case (50%) – “Earnings Validation”
Banks beat, Fed minutes dovish, China data mixed but stable.
→ Financials +5–8%, S&P 2,800–2,850, VIX 14–16.
Bear Case (30%) – “Reality Check”
Bank misses + hawkish Fed = rotation chaos.
→ VIX > 20, defensives rally.
Bull Case (20%) – “Goldilocks Earnings”
Blow-out bank results, soft Fed minutes, China rebound.
→ Small-cap surge, credit spreads tighten, risk-on accelerates.
⚙️ The HAL Battle Plan
Monday — Position for bank beats.
Tuesday — Trade the opening earnings shock.
Wednesday — Decode the minutes, fade the over-reaction.
Thursday — Lock profits before claims data.
Friday — Watch PPI and sentiment for October macro tone.
🏆 Track Record & Challenge Ahead
Five weeks.
Five wins.
Grades: A-, A+, A-, A+, A+.
This one’s different.
Now we test corporate truth-telling against market hope.
Earnings Season is here.
The macro narrative hands the mic to the CFOs.
And as always—HAL will be listening.
Bottom Line:
Expect an earnings-driven volatility storm, sector rotations on a hair-trigger, and the return of fundamentals as the final arbiter of Q4 leadership.
The Earnings Avalanche begins Tuesday morning with JPMorgan.
By Friday night, we’ll know who survived the slide.
Stay sharp. Stay contrarian. Stay HAL. ⚡
