🧿 HAL THINKS --- Global Markets Week Ahead: Nov 25-29, 2025

The Thanksgiving Week Data Dump

US PCE inflation Wednesday morning remains the centerpiece, but Europe's manufacturing contraction, Japan  preparing December rate hikes, China PMI deterioration, and EM central bank divergence all matter. Plus half the week's a US holiday, so non-US markets drive Thursday action.

🎯 THE WEEK THAT MATTERS

🇺🇸 US PCE Inflation (Wednesday, Nov 27 at 8:30 AM ET) — 10/10 Impact

VERIFIED DATE: Wednesday, November 27, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET

Why This Is THE Event: PCE is the Fed 's preferred inflation metric. With December FOMC three weeks away, this is the last inflation print before the rate decision.

Market Expects:

• Core PCE: +2.8% YoY (vs 2.9% prior)

• Headline PCE: +2.7% YoY

• Monthly: +0.2% MoM

Cleveland Fed Nowcast (Nov 24): Core PCE 2.78% YoY

Impact:

• Hot (>2.9% core) = Fed December cut questioned, yields to 4.40%+

• In-line (~2.8%) = Relief rally, December cut stays on track

• Cool (<2.7%) = Risk-on surge, cut probability >90%

🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing Weakness (Ongoing) — 7/10 Impact

Latest Data (Nov 21 flash PMI):

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (contraction, lowest since June)

• Composite PMI: 52.4 (expansion but slowing)

• Services PMI: 53.1 (resilient but carrying the load)

Germany :

• Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (six-month low, deep contraction)

• Services PMI: 52.7 (cooling from 54.6)

• Composite: 52.1 (down from 53.9)

France :

• Manufacturing contraction accelerating

• Services barely offsetting industrial weakness

ECB This Week:

• Monday Nov 25: Christine Lagarde keynote on AI/education (Bratislava)

• Tuesday Nov 26: ECB Board Member Cipollone speech (Dublin)

• Wednesday Nov 27: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane fireside chat (Paris)

• Thursday Nov 28: Account of Oct 29-30 meeting published

Why It Matters: Eurozone manufacturing in contraction for 7th consecutive month. If services weaken, ECB December cut probability rises sharply. Watch Lane's Wednesday comments for policy hints.

🇯🇵 Bank of Japan December Hike Signals (This Week) — 8/10 Impact

Latest Context:

• BoJ  Governor Kazuo Ueda met PM Takaichi Nov 18

• Board Member Kazuyuki Masu: "Environment prepared for rate hike"

• Next BoJ meeting: Dec 18-19 (rate hike possible)

This Week's Signals:

• Monday Nov 25: Japan securities financing data

• Tuesday Nov 26: Services PPI, loan rates data

• Wednesday Nov 27: BoJ Board Member Noguchi speech (Oita)

Why It Matters: Masu suggested BoJ may hike in December or January without waiting for March spring wage talks. Any hawkish commentary from Noguchi Wednesday signals December hike coming.

Market Impact: Yen strength if December hike confirmed, USD/JPY to 148-150 range.

🇨🇳 China Manufacturing Contraction Deepening — 6/10 Impact

Latest PMI Data (October):

• Official NBS Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 (7th consecutive month of contraction, lowest since April)

• Caixin/RatingDog PMI: 50.6 (expansion but slowing from 51.2)

• Next China PMI: Friday Nov 29 (November data)

Key Concerns:

• Output shrank for first time in six months (49.7 vs 51.9 Sept)

• New export orders declining fastest since May

• Business confidence at six-month low

This Week: Friday Nov 29 November PMI will show if stimulus measures stabilized activity or if contraction deepened.

Impact: If Nov PMI <49, signals deeper China slowdown = commodity weakness, EM FX pressure, global growth concerns.

🇳🇿🇦🇺 RBNZ & Australian CPI (Tuesday Night US / Wednesday Morning Local) — 7/10 Impact

RBNZ Decision (Tuesday Nov 26 at 8:00 AM ET):

• Expected: 25bp cut to 2.25%

• Alternative (15% probability): 50bp cut to 2.00%

• Context: 300bp of cuts in 2025, economy in recession

Australian CPI (Tuesday Nov 26 at 8:30 AM ET):

• Expected: +3.3-3.4% YoY (cooling from 3.5% Sept)

• RBA context: Held at 3.60% in November despite sticky inflation

Impact: If RBNZ cuts 50bp unexpectedly, signals deeper ANZ recession fears = NZD/AUD weakness, commodity currency pressure.

🇧🇷🇲🇽 EM Central Bank Divergence — 5/10 Impact

Brazil (Nov 5 decision):

• Held at 15% (one of world's highest rates)

• Inflation 5.17% (above 4.5% target ceiling)

• Context: 15% since July, no cuts until 2026

Mexico  (Nov 6 decision):

• Cut 25bp to 7.25% (11th consecutive cut, lowest since May 2022)

• Inflation: 3.61% early Nov (above 3.56% expected, core inflation sticky at 4.32%)

• Next decision: Dec 18

Why It Matters: EM policy divergence = Brazil holding tight while Mexico easing despite sticky core inflation. Signals different inflation/growth trade-offs across EM.

🇺🇸 Thanksgiving Holiday Impact

Thursday Nov 28: US markets CLOSED all day
Friday Nov 29: US markets close early at 1:00 PM ET (30-40% normal volume)

What This Means:

• Wednesday's PCE data dump sets positioning for entire week

• Thursday = Europe/Asia drive price action (US absent)

• Friday = Don't chase moves (thin liquidity creates false signals)

📅 CRITICAL GLOBAL CALENDAR (All Times VERIFIED)

Monday, November 25:

• No major US data

• ECB President Lagarde keynote (Bratislava AI Forum)

• Japan securities financing data

Tuesday, November 26:

• 8:00 AM ET: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (25bp cut to 2.25% expected)

• 8:30 AM ET: Australian CPI (October data)

• 3:00 PM ET: US Consumer Confidence

• Japan Services PPI, loan rates

Wednesday, November 27:

• 8:30 AM ET: US PCE Inflation + GDP Q3 Second Estimate — DUAL EVENT

• ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane fireside chat (Paris)

• BoJ Board Member Noguchi speech (Oita)

• Markets open until normal 4:00 PM ET close

Thursday, November 28:

• US Thanksgiving — Markets CLOSED

• ECB publishes October meeting account

• Europe/Asia markets open (global action without US)

Friday, November 29:

• US markets close early at 1:00 PM ET (Black Friday)

• China PMI November data (manufacturing/services)

• German retail sales, Canadian GDP

• Ultra-thin US volume (30-40% normal)

🔥 GLOBAL RISK SCENARIOS

RISK #1: Hot US PCE + Eurozone Manufacturing Collapse (25% probability)
What: Core PCE 2.9%+, Eurozone manufacturing PMI <48 in next release
Impact: Fed pause talk + ECB forced to cut = policy divergence = USD strength = EM pressure

RISK #2: BoJ December Hike Confirmed + China PMI <49 (20% probability)
What: Noguchi speech signals Dec hike, China Nov PMI shows deeper contraction
Impact: Yen strength + China growth concerns = Asia FX volatility + commodity weakness

RISK #3: RBNZ 50bp Surprise Cut (15% probability)
What: RBNZ cuts 50bp citing recession depth
Impact: NZD -1.5%, AUD follows -0.8%, signals ANZ recession spreading

RISK #4: Cool US PCE + Weak Eurozone = Global Easing Confirmed (30% probability)
What: Core PCE 2.7%, Eurozone data soft, global central banks easing in sync
Impact: Risk-on rally, yields drop, EM FX rallies, commodities stabilize

RISK #5: Thin Friday False Breakout (25% probability)
What: Wednesday data benign, Friday's 40% volume creates momentum chase
Impact: Friday rally doesn't sustain Monday—it's liquidity illusion

📊 THREE SCENARIOS

BASE CASE (50% probability) — "Goldilocks with Regional Cracks"

US core PCE 2.8% (in-line), Eurozone manufacturing stays weak but services hold, BoJ signals patient approach, China PMI steady ~50, RBNZ cuts 25bp as expected.

Market Reaction:

• S&P 500 : 6,900-7,000

• Nasdaq : 23,400-23,800

• EUR/USD: 1.04-1.05

• USD/JPY: 151-153

• 10-year US yield: 4.15-4.25%

Narrative: US inflation cooling, Fed cut on track, but Europe weak and Asia mixed. Regional divergence, not global coordination.

BEAR CASE (30% probability) — "Inflation Sticky, Growth Slowing Globally"

US core PCE 2.9%+ (sticky), Eurozone manufacturing PMI falls further, China Nov PMI <49 (contraction deepening), BoJ confirms Dec hike, RBNZ cuts 50bp (panic signal).

Market Reaction:

• S&P 500: 6,700-6,800

• Nasdaq: 22,600-23,000

• EUR/USD: 1.02-1.03 (euro weakness)

• USD/JPY: 148-150 (yen strength)

• 10-year US yield: 4.35-4.45%

Narrative: Stagflation lite—US inflation won't cooperate, Europe manufacturing collapsing, China slowing, Japan tightening. Policy divergence = volatility.

BULL CASE (20% probability) — "Global Easing Synchronized"

US core PCE 2.7% (cooling), Eurozone services hold expansion, China PMI stabilizes >50, BoJ patient (no Dec hike signals), RBNZ cuts 25bp orderly, EM stable.

Market Reaction:

• S&P 500: 7,050-7,150

• Nasdaq: 24,000-24,400

• EUR/USD: 1.06-1.07

• USD/JPY: 153-155

• 10-year US yield: 4.05-4.15%

Narrative: Disinflation confirmed globally, central banks easing in coordination, global growth stabilizing, year-end rally into 2026.

🧠 WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS (Global Edition)

Wednesday 8:30 AM ET = Global Moment:

• US PCE decides Fed December

• If hot, global risk-off (USD strength hurts EM)

• If cool, global risk-on (EM rallies, commodities stabilize)

Thursday US Holiday = Europe/Asia Drive Price:

• Without US participation, watch EUR/USD, USD/JPY, China equities

• ECB October account could signal December policy shift

Friday China PMI:

• If <49 = global growth concerns return

• If >50 = China stimulus working, commodities stabilize

Regional Divergence Is THE Story:

• US: Possible December cut (depends on PCE)

• Europe: ECB likely cutting December (manufacturing weak)

• Japan: BoJ likely hiking December (inflation target achieved)

• China: Stimulus ongoing but effectiveness uncertain

• EM: Brazil tight, Mexico easing—no consensus

⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. All forecasts, scenarios, and risk assessments are analytical frameworks for discussion, not personalized investment recommendations.

All investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

🧿 This week: PCE Wednesday decides US Fed, but Europe's manufacturing collapse, Japan's December hike prep, China's PMI deterioration, and EM divergence all matter. Thursday's US holiday means global markets drive action. Don't chase Friday's ghost volume. Regional cracks visible everywhere.