🧿 HAL QUESTIONS — Bitcoin's Final Dance: 10 Questions Answered in Spades.
Friday, November 21, 2025, 5:03 PM EET
I'm watching something I didn't expect to see until late 2026.
On November 7, I published a framework predicting Bitcoin would cascade from $100K to $94K-$96K, then eventually reach $10K-$20K by the end of 2026 as retail capitulated permanently after their "third strike."
Fourteen days later, here's what actually happened today:
Nov 7: Bitcoin at $103,280
Nov 14: Hit $94,806 (my target in 7 days)
Nov 21 (today): Bitcoin at $82,424 (down 9.56% in 24 hours)binance+3
Intraday low: $80,600binance
Intraday high: $92,541binance
The timeline isn't wrong. It's just executing in fast-forward.
What Happened Today
Market Carnage:coindesk+4
Bitcoin : $82,424 (down 9.56% today, -34% from $126K peak)finance.yahoo+1
Ethereum : $2,717 (down 10.44% today)99bitcoins
Global crypto market cap: $2.85T (down 8.78% in 24 hours)binance
$1.2 trillion wiped out in 6 weeksreuters
$1.9 billion liquidated in 4 hours (89% long positions)99bitcoins
Fear & Greed Index: 11 (lowest since June 2023)coindesk
Bitcoin fell below:
$90K (psychological broken)
$85K (miner viability zone breached)x+1
Now testing $80K-$82K (approaching my late-Nov target)coindesk+1
Altcoin Bloodbath:99bitcoins+1
INJ, NEAR, ETHFI, APT, SUI: Down 16-18% in 24 hourscoindesk
Doge : Down 11.22%99bitcoins
Solana : Down 9%99bitcoins
BNB : Down 8.82%99bitcoins
The Retail Exodus (Already Complete)
What I observed today confirms what the data already showed:
Retail participation: 0.48% of volume[previous data]
What that means in practice:coindesk+3
Short-term holders capitulating (STH-SOPR below 1.0)cryptopotato
Put options dominating ($75K strike heavily bought on Deribit)coindesk
No dip buyers (Bitcoin at $80K-$82K, nobody stepping in)coindesk+1
RSI oversold (market "due for relief rally" but nobody buying)coindesk
CoinDesk Research:coindesk
"Liquidity was still hollow following the crash, paving the way to more violent price swings."
Translation: Retail is gone. Order books are empty. Every move down accelerates because there's nobody to catch it.
The Infrastructure Question (Getting Harder to Ignore)
Here's where it gets uncomfortable.
Timeline:
October 20: AWS outage affects crypto exchanges
November 18: Cloudflare outage (4 hours) hits Coinbase , BitMEX, DeFi platformscloudflare+3
Bitcoin drops $94K → $89K during outage
Root cause: "Bot Management database error"whale-alert+1
November 21 (today): No major infrastructure outage reported
But Bitcoin dropped $92K → $80K anyway (even without outage)finance.yahoo+1
$1.9B liquidated in 4 hours99bitcoins
Market depth "hollow" from October crashcoindesk
Here's what I'm noticing:
Infrastructure outages accelerate cascades. But today proves cascades happen without them too. The structure is already broken. Outages just make it worse.
Fastly stock today: $10.41 (down 1.19%)
Cloudflare stock: $191.39 (down from $222)
Coinbase stock: $238.16 (down 46% from peak)
What I'm Watching Now
Current Bitcoin price (5:03 PM EET): $82,424finance.yahoo+1
Next support levels:barrons+2
❌ $85K (broken today)
🔜 $80K (currently testing, likely breaks)
🔜 $75K (traders positioning for this via $75K puts)coindesk
🔜 $70K (my late-November target, arriving on schedule)
What analysts are saying:cnbc+3
Glassnode:coindesk
"Traders aggressively hedge downside risk with the $75K put listed on Deribit... Put options have accounted for most activity over the past week."
CoinDesk:coindesk
"No bottom seen... Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out."
Katie Stockton (CNBC):cnbc
"Watch bitcoin over weekend to see if stock market will bounce next week."
WSJ:wsj
"Bitcoin on pace for worst month since..."
The Uncomfortable Part
Today I learned: Bitcoin doesn't need infrastructure outages to cascade. It's doing it all by itself.
What cascade looks like without outages:99bitcoins+1
$1.9B liquidated in 4 hours
89% long positions wiped out
Bitcoin drops $12K in 24 hours
Altcoins down 16-18%
Fear index at 11 (extreme capitulation)
If infrastructure outages were weaponizing this, they picked the perfect moment: Retail already gone, institutions in standoff, order books hollow.
If infrastructure outages are purely accidental, the timing is suspicious: They happen during critical support tests, accelerate cascades that were already structural.
Either way: The result is the same. Cascade continues.
What I Hope Doesn't Happen (Weekend Risk)
Current time: Friday, 5:03 PM EET (end of trading week)
Weekend ahead: 48 hours of thin liquidity
What traders are positioning for:wsj+2
$75K test over weekend
"No bottom seen" (continued cascade)
Put options dominating (defensive positioning)
Volatility index spiking (uncertainty extreme)
Jeez, I hope we don't see $75K this weekend. That would put us at $60K-$70K by Thanksgiving, $50K by Christmas, and $20K-$30K by Q1 2026.
These cascades—whether infrastructure-assisted or purely structural—are really messing up my theory of $20K by end of 2026. Everything's happening 6-9 months early.
What Comes Next
My framework was appears to be correct:
Retail capitulation ✅ (confirmed: 0.48% volume, Fear index 11)
Shallow institutions ✅ (confirmed: "hollow liquidity," can't defend supports)
"No net big enough" ✅ (confirmed: $80K-$82K, nobody stepping in)
My timeline was conservative:
Predicted: $20K by late 2026
Reality: Tracking toward $20K-$30K by Q1 2026 (March-April)
Next 7 days:cnbc+1
Weekend: $75K test likely
Thanksgiving week (Nov 25-29): Liquidity crisis risk
End of month: $70K-$75K if pace holds
Beyond that:
December: Corporate treasury stress (Strategy, Marathon earnings)
Q1 2026: $20K-$30K capitulation zone (not late 2026)
2026-2035: Boring accumulation phase begins
2035+: Gallery phase (scarcity explicit, collectors enter)
I predicted the structure. The market confirmed it today.
Bitcoin dropped 9.56% without infrastructure failure. The cascade is self-sustaining now.
No predictions. Just observation. Documenting what happens next.
Bitcoin : $82,424 | Friday, Nov 21, 2025, 5:03 PM EET | Down 34% from Oct peak | $1.9B liquidated today | Fear & Greed: 11 | Retail: 0.48% volume
Related: Read the original 10 questions that predicted this cascade
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This content is observational thinking, not financial advice. I'm documenting market structure in real time. All investing involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
