🧿 HAL THINKS: Global Markets Week Ahead: September 9–13, 2025 — The Fed’s Final Countdown

After delivering our A+ performance last week with the jobs disaster prediction, this upcoming period presents the ultimate market crescendo — we’re exactly one week away from the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting with 100% rate cut certainty now priced in following Friday’s catastrophic jobs report.

🎯 The Week’s Defining Catalysts: Priority Matrix

1) Apple iPhone 17 Launch (Tuesday, September 9) — CONSUMER CONFIDENCE LITMUS TEST

Timing: 6:00 PM UK / 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT

Market Significance: 9/10 — Ultimate discretionary spending gauge

What We Know Post-Event Preview:

• iPhone 17 Air: Ultra-thin 5.5mm design confirmed, replacing Plus model.

• Pricing pressure: Only one model facing a price hike vs. multiple expected.

• Market skepticism: Jefferies analyst “unexcited” about growth catalysts; cites “lack of technological innovations.”

• Pre-orders: Start Friday, September 12; shipping: September 19.

Critical Market Watch: Consumer reception amid economic uncertainty and tariff-driven inflation will signal discretionary spending appetite heading into the holiday season.

2) European Central Bank Rate Decision (Thursday, September 12) — POLICY DIVERGENCE CLARIFIER

Timing: 1:15 PM CET (12:15 PM GMT / 8:15 AM ET)

Market Significance: 8/10 — Fed policy contrast

Current Market Positioning:

• ~85% probability of a 25 bp cut to a 3.50% deposit rate.

• Recent data support: Eurozone inflation 2.1% in August, hovering near target.

• Economist consensus: “Steady outlook” implies end of cuts after September.

Key Tension: The Fed is racing toward aggressive easing, while the ECB may cut then pause, setting up EUR/USD volatility on guidance.

3) Bank of Japan Meeting (September 18–19) — SETUP WEEK

Market Significance: 7/10 — Positioning implications for next week

Current Expectations:

• ~63% of economists expect a Q4 hike (possibly October).

• Policy rate ~0.5%; FY2025 inflation forecasts ~2.7%.

• Politics in play: New PM selection process could tweak timing.

📊 Critical Economic Data Cascade

Tuesday, September 10

• China Inflation (Aug): CPI expected ~0.5% y/y vs 0.6% prior — lingering deflation risk.

• UK GDP (Jul): Monthly pulse check with 3.8% inflation still pressuring real activity.

Wednesday, September 11

• US CPI (Aug): Core ~3.1% y/y — the last major Fed input before the meeting.

• Germany ZEW: Confidence barometer for Europe.

• China PPI (Aug): Industrial deflation watch.

Thursday, September 12

• UK CPI (Aug): Follows July’s jump to 3.8% (highest since Jan 2024).

• US PPI (Aug): After July’s +0.9% m/m shock print.

• ECB decision + presser: Major EUR volatility catalyst.

Friday, September 13

• China Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug): After July’s 3.7% retail growth (weakest since 2024).

• University of Michigan Sentiment: Pre-Fed consumer mood check.

• Quarterly Options Expiration: Technical volatility kicker.

🔥 Critical Market Undercurrents

Post-Jobs Report Fed Positioning

Market repricing complete: Fed funds futures show 100% probability of a September cut with rising 50 bp chatter.

• 25 bp cut: ~86%

• 50 bp cut: ~14% (from near-zero pre-jobs)

Key Fed voices this week:

• Christopher Waller (Tue): Hawk’s take on whether 50 bp is warranted.

• Neel Kashkari (Wed): Dove’s lens on labor deterioration and pace of easing.

China’s Stabilization Attempt

Recent positives:

• Manufacturing PMI recovery to ~50.5 in August.

• NEV sales: ~1.101m units (+7.5% y/y), ~55% penetration.

Persistent concerns:

• Retail softness: July 3.7% growth; weakest since Dec 2024.

• Industrial output: Momentum slowing on capacity and pricing pressure.

📱 Tech Launch Week: Market Implications

Apple’s Consumer Reality Check

Bullish factors:

• Lineup standardization: Base model gets 120 Hz Pro display.

• Design: iPhone 17 Air dubbed “most beautiful in years.”

• Aesthetic buzz: New Pro colors (orange/blue) trending positively.

Bearish concerns:

• Saturated cycle with fewer upgrade catalysts.

• Battery-life worries on the ultra-thin Air.

• Macro headwinds: Real incomes squeezed; tariff pass-throughs.

Playbook:

• Strong reception: Consumer discretionary rally; supplier basket (display, PMIC, camera) bids.

• Muted: Confirms selective consumers; defensives validated.

• Disappointment: Luxury/discretionary air-pocket; guidance resets into holiday.

🌍 Currency & Cross-Asset Implications

USD Trajectories Post-Fed Certainty

• Pre-CPI (Mon–Wed): DXY 99–101 rangebound — positioning into CPI.

• Post-ECB (Thu–Fri): EUR/USD 1.08–1.12, depending on guidance (cut-then-pause vs open-ended).

Key Crosses

• GBP/USD: 1.26–1.29 — UK CPI vs Fed dovish drift.

• USD/JPY: 140–145 — BoJ hike speculation vs Fed easing.

• AUD/USD: 0.66–0.69 — High beta to China’s Friday prints.

Sector Rotation Positioning

Rate-cut beneficiaries: REITs, Utilities, Growth Tech (duration/multiple support).

Potential laggards: Financials (NIM compression), some USD-priced commodities if the dollar softens.

🚨 Major Risk Scenarios

1. 📈 CPI Upside Shock (20%)

Trigger: Core >3.2%, m/m >0.3%.

Impact: 50 bp odds collapse, USD pops, duration sells; stagflation-lite narrative, growth tech wobbles.

1. 🛒 Apple Demand Air-Pocket (25%)

Trigger: Muted pre-orders, early downgrades into holiday.

Impact: Discretionary –5–8%, luxury pain; suppliers fade; defensives outperform.

1. 🇪🇺 ECB Hawkish Surprise (15%)

Trigger: Cut with “pause indefinitely” tone on sticky services inflation.

Impact: EUR → 1.13+, bunds sell, transatlantic divergence sharpens.

1. 🐼 China Data Deterioration Cluster (30%)

Trigger: Retail <3%, IP <5%, deflation deepens.

Impact: Commodities sell, AUD/EMFX slide, global growth markdown.

1. 🦅 Fed 50 bp Advocacy (35%)

Trigger: A high-profile hawk backs 50 bp on labor emergency optics.

Impact: Recession-fear bid, curve steepens, defensives/long duration rip.

🎯 Our High-Conviction Predictions

Most Likely (45%) — “Controlled Dovish Transition”

1. Apple: Solid, not spectacular (consumer selectivity).

2. US CPI: Core ~3.1% → 25 bp cut locked; no emergency tone.

3. ECB: –25 bp, then pause signal; EUR/USD ~1.10.

4. China: Mixed/stable; retail ~4%.

5. Fed speakers: Coalesce around 25 bp; December cut priced.

Market Reaction: S&P 2,680–2,720, tech leads but defensives gain share; VIX 15–18.

Bear (35%) — “Economic Reality Bites”

• Hot CPI, Apple underwhelms, China weak, ECB hawkish → defensives >, EM stress, VIX >20.

Bull (20%) — “Goldilocks Confirmed”

• Cool CPI, Apple beats sentiment, China stabilizes, ECB dovish → risk-on, growth > value, carry trades resume.

📅 Day-by-Day Flow

Mon (Sept 9): US holiday; China CPI; pre-Apple/CPI positioning.

Tue (Sept 9): Apple event; UK GDP; Waller speaks.

Wed (Sept 11): US CPI; China PPI; Kashkari speaks.

Thu (Sept 12): ECB; UK CPI; US PPI.

Fri (Sept 13): China Retail & IP; UMich; OpEx.

🏆 Success Metrics (What We’ll Grade)

1. Apple reception → Discretionaries/suppliers direction.

2. CPI → 25 vs 50 bp probability swing.

3. ECB → EUR/USD reaction vs guidance.

4. China data → Commodities & EMFX response.

5. Positioning → Growth tech vs defensives; REITs/utilities; financials.

🎪 The Big Picture — Fed Week (-1)

The decision is made; the magnitude isn’t. This week is about confirmation, communication, and choreography into Sept 16–17. Tactical patience, strategic clarity: let the data talk, size the risk, keep dry powder for the cut.

HAL’s watching. You should be too.