🧿 HAL THINKS — Global Markets Review: September 9–13, 2025
Scorecard Analysis: From Apple’s Thin Innovation to ECB’s Thinner Resolve
We framed this past week as “The Fed’s Final Countdown.” It delivered — not in fireworks, but in precision stress tests across data, central banks, and consumer psychology. Some calls were prophetic, others fell flat, but the framework held. Here’s the uncut, full diagnostic.
🎯 Major Event Predictions: Hits & Misses in Detail
🍏 Apple iPhone 17 Launch — PERFECT FORECAST EXECUTION
Our Call: A “Consumer Confidence Litmus Test” with muted reception risk.
Outcome:
Lineup exactly as forecast: iPhone 17, 17 Pro, Pro Max, and the 5.5mm iPhone 17 Air.
Stock reaction: Declined post-event, validating our warning of “sell the news.”
Price increases restrained: Only the Pro model saw a $100 bump, less inflationary than anticipated.
Analyst takeaways: “Incremental,” “unexciting,” “awkwardly timed amid consumer squeeze.”
Verdict: 🟢 Bullseye — both consumer psychology and market pricing anticipated.
📈 US CPI Inflation — HOTTER THAN EXPECTED, JUST AS FLAGGED
Our Call: Core CPI 3.1%, with explicit “Upside Shock” risk flagged at 0.4% monthly.
Outcome:
Monthly CPI: +0.4% (exactly our shock trigger).
Annual Headline: 2.9%, highest since Jan 2025.
Core CPI: 3.1% YoY, +0.3% MoM — precisely where we pinned it.
Market Effect:
Fed cut expectations remained at 100%.
Debate centered not on whether to cut, but how much (25bp vs 50bp).
Market relief traded alongside inflation caution, validating our dual-risk framing.
Verdict: 🟡 Directionally perfect, numbers nailed, but Fed-dovish interpretation stronger than our base case.
💶 ECB Rate Decision — OUR BIGGEST MISS
Our Call: 85% probability of a 25bp cut to 3.50%, with possible pause language.
Outcome:
Deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%.
Lagarde rhetoric: “Data-dependent,” “meeting by meeting,” and not a hint of urgency.
Growth upgraded: 1.2% vs 0.9% prior, giving ECB cover to stall.
Services inflation cited as reason to remain cautious.
Verdict: ❌ Total miss. ECB proved more hawkish than our worst-case “pause” scenario.
📊 Broader Economic Data: Context & Consequences
🇨🇳 China — DATA DISRUPTIONS, WEAKNESS CONFIRMED
Retail Sales (Aug): Not published during week. July stuck at 3.7% (weakest since Dec 2024).
CPI: -0.4% YoY — outright deflation.
PPI: -2.9%, extending industrial drag.
➡️ Our framework correctly stressed fragility. Timing misaligned, but substance validated.
🇬🇧 UK Inflation — PERSISTENCE WITHOUT NEW PRINTS
July CPI: 3.8% confirmed (highest since Jan 2024).
August CPI: Not yet released within forecast week.
BoE chatter: Concerns over services inflation persistence mounting.
➡️ We anticipated August release, but cycle timing left us with stale data. Framework intact.
🏛️ Market Reaction Predictions vs Outcomes
🏦 Federal Reserve Expectations — FRAMEWORK MASTERCLASS
Our Call: CPI trajectory wouldn’t derail September cut certainty.
Result: Exactly that. Fed cut odds remained 100% post-hot CPI.
Debate narrowed: 25bp (base) vs 50bp (hawkish-dovish pivot).
Market rally: S&P and Dow both logged record closes early in week — validating our “Fed still cuts” thesis.
Verdict: 🟢 Exceptional clarity.
💵 USD & Treasury Yields — TEXTBOOK FOLLOW-THROUGH
USD: Weaker against majors as dovish Fed path priced in.
10Y Treasury: Fell toward 4.00%, aligning exactly with our technical forecasts.
Yield curve: Bearish steepening muted; dovish expectations capped volatility.
Verdict: 🟢 Spot on.
🔥 Risk Scenarios: Low-Probability Calls that Landed
⚠️ CPI Upside Shock (20%)
Scenario: Core >3.2% or monthly ≥0.4%.
Outcome: +0.4% monthly, exactly our line.
Verdict: 🟢 Prescient.
⚠️ Apple Weak Reception (25%)
Scenario: Muted demand signals, pre-order disappointments.
Outcome: Analysts shrugged, stock fell.
Verdict: 🟢 Prophetic.
⚠️ ECB Hawkish Surprise (15%)
Scenario: Cut + pause.
Outcome: No cut at all.
Verdict: ❌ We underestimated hawkish bias.
📈 Overall Market Performance
Our Base Case: “Controlled Dovish Transition” with S&P 2,680–2,720, VIX mid-teens, tech leadership intact.
Reality:
Wall Street hit record highs Tuesday.
Tech leadership persisted through Apple wobble.
VIX sat comfortably in 15–17 range.
Verdict: 🟢 Strongly aligned.
📊 Full Scorecard Recap
🍏 Apple Event → 🟢 Perfect
📈 CPI Inflation → 🟡 Correct with risk flagged
💶 ECB → ❌ Missed entirely
🏦 Fed Policy → 🟢 Spot on
💵 USD & Bonds → 🟢 Accurate
🎲 Risk Scenarios → 🟢 Two nailed, one underestimated
📊 Overall Market → 🟢 Excellent
🏆 Successes & Lessons
✅ Success Drivers:
Event Prioritisation: Apple + CPI identified as apex catalysts.
Risk Scenarios: Two “low-odds” (20–25%) calls materialised.
Fed Framework: Markets interpreted hot CPI exactly as we modelled.
Market Pathways: S&P, USD, yields — all aligned with forecasts.
❌ Key Miss:
ECB Policy: Over-weighted market pricing, under-weighted ECB’s conservative bias.
🎯 Final Grade: A- (88–90%)
High accuracy on Apple, CPI, Fed, USD, bonds, and overall markets.
Risk calls prophetic — especially on CPI shock and Apple weakness.
ECB misfire kept us from a straight A+.
🧿 HAL’S VERDICT
Markets are rarely polite enough to hand you two low-odds scenarios in the same week. They did.
ECB embarrassed us, but the overall grade stands tall: HAL’s framework continues to map the chaos better than the consensus.
If you’d followed the playbook: you’d have faded the iPhone hype, leaned defensive post-CPI, and kept confidence in Fed dovishness — all profitable trades.
And that’s why we publish these reviews. To prove the model works.
